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A Sequential Game Model of Sports Championship Series: Theory and Estimation

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  • Christopher Ferrall
  • Anthony A. Smith, Jr.

Abstract

Using data from professional baseball, basketball, and hockey, we estimate the parameters of a sequential game model of best-of-n championship series controlling for measured and unmeasured differences in team strength and bootstrapping the maximum-likelihood estimates to improve their small sample properties. We find negligible strategic effects in all three sports: teams play as well as possible in each game regardless of the game's importance in the series. We also estimate negligible unobserved heterogeneity after controlling for regular season records and past appearance in the championship series: Teams are estimated to be exactly as strong as they appear on paper. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business in its series GSIA Working Papers with number 1997-38.

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Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:74

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Postal: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
Web page: http://www.tepper.cmu.edu/

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Web: http://student-3k.tepper.cmu.edu/gsiadoc/GSIA_WP.asp

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Cited by:
  1. Chen, Jiawei & Shum, Matthew, 2010. "Estimating a tournament model of intra-firm wage differentials," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 155(1), pages 39-55, March.
  2. Koop G., 2002. "Comparing the Performance of Baseball Players: A Multiple-Output Approach," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 710-720, September.
  3. Andrew J. Leach, 2003. "SubGame, set and match. Identifying Incentive Response in a Tournament," Cahiers de recherche 04-02, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  4. Dmitry Ryvkin, 2011. "Fatigue in Dynamic Tournaments," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 1011-1041, December.
  5. Shakun D. Mago & Roman M. Sheremeta & Andrew Yates, 2012. "Best-of-Three Contest Experiments: Strategic versus Psychological Momentum," Working Papers 12-30, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  6. Moschini, GianCarlo, 2008. "Incentives and Outcomes in a Strategic Setting: The 3-Points-For-A-Win System in Soccer," Staff General Research Papers 12942, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Vukina, Tomislav & Zheng, Xiaoyong, 2008. "Homogenous and Heterogenous Contestants in Piece Rate Tournaments: Theory and Empirical Analysis," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6540, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  8. Erez, Eyal & Sela, Aner, 2010. "Round-Robin Tournaments with Effort Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 8021, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Konrad, Kai A., 2007. "Strategy in contests: an introduction," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2007-01, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).

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