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Unemployment Crises

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  • Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau
  • Lu Zhang

Abstract

A search and matching model, when calibrated to the mean and volatility of unemployment in the postwar sample, can potentially explain the large unemployment dynamics in the Great Depression. The congestion externality induced by matching frictions causes the unemployment rate to increase sharply in recessions but to decline gradually in booms. The frequency, severity, and persistence of unemployment crises in the model are consistent with U.S. historical time series. An accurate global solution is critical for deriving the nonlinear dynamics. Loglinearization understates the mean and volatility of unemployment, overstates the unemployment-vacancy correlation, and overlooks impulse responses that are an order of magnitude larger in recessions than in booms.

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Paper provided by Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business in its series GSIA Working Papers with number 2013-E5.

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Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:1531714773

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Postal: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
Web page: http://www.tepper.cmu.edu/

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Web: http://student-3k.tepper.cmu.edu/gsiadoc/GSIA_WP.asp

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  1. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
  2. Kuehn Lars-Alexander & Petrosky-Nadeau Nicolas & Zhang Lu, . "An Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Labor Market Search," GSIA Working Papers 2010-E63, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  3. Ch. Pissarides., 2011. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
  4. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 1994. "Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Staff Report 171, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Karen A. Kopecky & Richard M. H. Suen, 2009. "Finite State Markov-Chain Approximations to Highly Persistent Processes," Working Papers 200904, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised May 2009.
  7. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Corbae, Dean, 2007. "On the aggregate welfare cost of Great Depression unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1529-1544, September.
  8. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Lu Zhang, 2013. "Solving the DMP Model Accurately," NBER Working Papers 19208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Wouter J. den Haan & Garey Ramey & Joel Watson, 1997. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 6275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-32, March.
  11. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, December.
  12. Casey B. Mulligan, 2012. "Do Welfare Policies Matter for Labor Market Aggregates? Quantifying Safety Net Work Incentives since 2007," NBER Working Papers 18088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  14. Ken Binmore & Ariel Rubinstein & Asher Wolinsky, 1986. "The Nash Bargaining Solution in Economic Modelling," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(2), pages 176-188, Summer.
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Cited by:
  1. Eleni Iliopulos & François Langot & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2014. "Welfare Cost of Fluctuations: when Labor Market Search Interacts with Financial Frictions," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14042, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  2. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Lu Zhang, 2013. "Solving the DMP Model Accurately," NBER Working Papers 19208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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