Irreversible Choice of Uncertain Technologies with Network Externalities
AbstractIn this article, I explore the problem of sequential and irreversible technology choice in the presence of network externalities when the technologies stochastically evolve over time. Early potential users are shown to adopt an irreversible technology too early compared to the social optimum. The effect of increasing the uncertainty of the technologies on an early potential user's decision is analyzed. I find that the sponsor of new emerging technology might choose a research strategy that is too safe. I also study the consequences of allowing side payments between generations of consumers and demonstrate that an ex post optimal standardization policy can impair ex ante social welfare.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Columbia University, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 1992_27.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 1992
Date of revision:
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technology ; social welfare;
Other versions of this item:
- Jay Pil Choi, 1994. "Irreversible Choice of Uncertain Technologies with Network Externalities," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(3), pages 382-401, Autumn.
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- Choi, Jay Pil, 1996. "Standardization and experimentation: Ex ante vs. ex post standardization," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 273-290, September.
- Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder & Daan P. van Soest, 2004. "Subsidizing the Adoption of Energy-Saving Technologies: Analyzing the Impact of Uncertainty, Learning and Maturation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-019/3, Tinbergen Institute.
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