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Does a "two-pillar Phillips curve" justify a two-pillar monetary policy strategy?

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  • Michael Woodford

    ()
    (Columbia University - Department of Economics)

Abstract

Arguments for a prominent role for attention to the growth rate of monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy are often based on references to low-frequency reduced-form relationships between money growth and inflation. The "two-pillar Phillips curve" proposed by Gerlach (2004) has recently attracted a great deal of interest in the euro area, where it is sometimes supposed to provide empirical support for the wisdom of a "two-pillar strategy" that uses distinct analytical frameworks to assess shorter-run and longer-run risks to price stability. I show, however, that regression coefficients of the kind reported by Assenmacher-Wesche and Gerlach (2006a) among others are quite consistent with a "new Keynesian" model of inflation determination, in which the quantity of money plays no role in inflation determination, at either high or low frequencies. I also show that empirical results of this kind do not in themselves establish that money growth must be useful in forecasting inflation, either in the short run or over a longer run. Hence they provide little support for the ECB's monetary "pillar."

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Paper provided by Columbia University, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 0607-06.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:clu:wpaper:0607-06

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  1. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
  2. Reynard, Samuel, 2007. "Maintaining low inflation: money, interest rates, and policy stance," Working Paper Series 0756, European Central Bank.
  3. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Albert Jaeger, 2003. "The ECB'S Money Pillar," IMF Working Papers 03/82, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Christian Bordes & Laurent Clerc & Vêlayoudom Marimoutou, 2007. "Is there a structural break in equilibrium velocity in the euro area?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308654, HAL.
  6. Michael Woodford, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 13325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Stefan Gerlach & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2006. "Interpreting Euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," BIS Working Papers 195, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Bordes, C. & Clerc, L. & Marimoutou, V., 2007. "Is there a structural break in equilibrium velocity in the euro area?," Working papers 165, Banque de France.
  9. Neumann, Manfred J. M. & Greiber, Claus, 2004. "Inflation and core money growth in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,36, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June.
  11. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Long run evidence on money growth and inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank.
  12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  13. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis in models without money," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 145-164.
  14. Beck, Günter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2007. "Money in monetary policy design under uncertainty: the Two-Pillar Phillips Curve versus ECB-style cross-checking," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,20, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  15. Corbae, D. & Ouliaris, S. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1991. "A Rexamination of the Consumption Function Using Frequency Domain Regressions," Working Papers 91-25, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  16. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  17. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Understanding the Link between Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Warne, Anders & Bruggeman, Annick & Donati, Paola, 2003. "Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 0255, European Central Bank.
  19. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2008. "Does Money Matter For Inflation In The Euro Area?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 590-606, October.
  20. Engle, Robert F, 1974. "Band Spectrum Regression," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February.
  21. Hofmann, Boris, 2006. "Do monetary indicators (still) predict euro area inflation?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  22. repec:hal:journl:hal-00308654 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Dean Corbea & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "A Reexamination of the Consumption Function Using Frequency Domain Regressors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 997, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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