Data in which each observation is a curve occur in many applied problems. This paper explores prediction in time series in which the data is generated by a curve-valued autoregression process. It develops a novel technique, the predictive factor decomposition, for estimation of the autoregression operator, which is designed to be better suited for prediction purposes than the principal components method. The technique is based on finding a reducedrank approximation to the autoregression operator that minimizes the norm of the expected prediction error. Implementing this idea, we relate the operator approximation problem to an eigenvalue problem for an operator pencil that is formed by the cross-covariance and covariance operators of the autoregressive process. We develop an estimation method based on regularization of the empirical counterpart of this eigenvalue problem, and prove that with a certain choice of parameters, the method consistently estimates the predictive factors. In addition, we show that forecasts based on the estimated predictive factors converge in probability to the optimal forecasts. The new method is illustrated by an analysis of the dynamics of the term structure of Eurodollar futures rates. We restrict the sample to the period of normal growth and find that in this subsample the predictive factor technique not only outperforms the principal components method but also performs on par with the best available prediction methods.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Columbia University, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number
0405-18.
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Did you know? Each page is provided with a technical contact, in case something is not right with the supplied information. See under "publisher info".