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A search for multiple equilibria in urban industrial structure

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Author Info
Donald R. Davis () (Columbia University - Department of Economics)
David E. Weinstein () (Columbia University - Department of Economics)

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Abstract

Theories featuring multiple equilibria are now widespread across many fields of economics. Yet little empirical work has asked if such multiple equilibria are salient features of real economies. We examine this in the context of the Allied bombing of Japanese cities and industries in WWII. We develop a new empirical test for multiple equilibria and apply it to data for 114 Japanese cities in eight manufacturing industries. The data provide no support for the existence of multiple equilibria. In the aftermath even of immense shocks, a city typically recovers not only its population and its share of aggregate manufacturing, but even the specific industries it had before.

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File URL: http://www.econ.columbia.edu/RePEc/pdf/DP0304-12.pdf
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Paper provided by Columbia University, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 0304-12.

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Length: 65 pages
Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:clu:wpaper:0304-12

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  1. Krugman, Paul R & Venables, Anthony J, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 857-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, bombs and break points: The geography of economic activity," Discussion Papers 0102-02, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-26, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Paul A. David, . "Path Dependence, its critics, and the quest for 'historical economics'," Working Papers 00011, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Andrea Moro, 2003. "The Effect Of Statistical Discrimination On Black-White Wage Inequality: Estimating A Model With Multiple Equilibria," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 467-500, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jordan Rappaport & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2001. "The U.S. as a coastal nation," Research Working Paper RWP 01-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  7. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2001. "Externalities and Cities," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(2), pages 245-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Russell W. Cooper, 2002. "Estimation and Identification of Structural Parameters in the Presence of Multiple Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 8941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Xavier Gabaix, 1999. "Zipf'S Law For Cities: An Explanation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(3), pages 739-767, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Redding, Stephen J & Sturm, Daniel M & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2007. "History and Industry Location: Evidence from German Airports," CEPR Discussion Papers 6345, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2006. "Prizes for Basic Research -- Human Capital, Economic Might and the Shadow of History," NBER Working Papers 12226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ulrike Stierle-von Schütz, 2005. "Fiscal Design and the Location of Economic Activity," ERSA conference papers ersa05p539, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  4. Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm & Steven Brakman, 2003. "The Strategic Bombing of German Cities during World War II and its Impact for Germany," Working Papers 03-09, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Maarten Bosker & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2005. "Looking for Multiple Equilibria when Geography Matters: German City Growth and the WWII Shock," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Maarten Bosker & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2006. "A Century of Shocks: The Evolution of the German City Size Distribution 1925 – 1999," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  7. Head, Charles Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2003. "The Empirics of Agglomeration and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3985, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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