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Indecision Theory: Explaining Selective Abstention in Multiple Elections

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Author Info
Ghirardato, Paolo
Katz, Jonathan N.

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Abstract

We present a new model of voting which explains the so-called "roll-off" phenomenon: Selective abstention in multiple elections. We first characterize when a Bayesian voter prefers to abstain, and find that such choice necessitates correlation in the voter's beliefs between election outcomes and candidate policies. We then show that if a voter is ambiguity averse, he may abstain under more general circumstances. In fact, ambiguity aversion about the candidates' policy positions can make abstention look to the voter a smaller "mistake" than voting for one of the candidates. We investigate the conditions under which this happens, and find that it does when the voter sees the candidates as sufficiently complementary in their ambiguity. As this will likely happen in those elections on which the voter has poor or nil information, our model provides a possible explanation for selective abstention.

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Paper provided by California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences in its series Working Papers with number 1106.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2000
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Handle: RePEc:clt:sswopa:1106

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J & Tallarini, Thomas D, Jr, 1999. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Paolo Ghirardato & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Marciano Siniscalchi, 2003. "A Subjective Spin on Roulette Wheels," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1897-1908, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Matsusaka, John G, 1995. " Explaining Voter Turnout Patterns: An Information Theory," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 84(1-2), pages 91-117, July.
  6. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity from the Differential Viewpoint," Working Papers 1130, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Valentino Larcinese, 2006. "Information Acquisition, Ideology and Turnout:Theory and Evidence from Britain," STICERD - Political Economy and Public Policy Paper Series 18, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  8. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Timothy J. Fedderson & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 1996. "Abstention in Elections with Asymmetric Information and Diverse Preferences," Discussion Papers 1195, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
  11. Feddersen, Timothy J & Pesendorfer, Wolfgang, 1996. "The Swing Voter's Curse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 408-24, June.
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    • Timothy J. Feddersen & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 1995. "The Swing Voter's Curse," Discussion Papers 1064, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
  12. Fox, Craig R & Tversky, Amos, 1995. "Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 585-603, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Mukerji, Sujoy, 1998. "Ambiguity Aversion and Incompleteness of Contractual Form," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1207-31, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, M., 1997. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation and Some Implications," Working Papers 1026, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2002. "Ellsberg`s 2-Color Experiment, Bid-Ask Behavior and Ambiguity," Economics Series Working Papers 114, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Massimiliano Amarante, 2003. "Ambiguous Events," Discussion Papers 0304-04, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity from the Differential Viewpoint," Working Papers 1130, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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