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Testing for Contagion during the Asian Crisis

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  • Kessara Thanyalakpark

    (Chulalongkorn University and Claremont Graduate University)

  • Darren Filson

    (Claremont Graduate University)

Abstract

This paper uses a stationary multivariate asymmetric GARCH specification of the international capital asset pricing model to investigate contagion effects across six developed and emerging East Asian markets as well as the US and the World markets around the time of the Asian currency crisis of 1997. After controlling for domestic shocks and spillover effects, the results suggest that the region’s equity markets volatility processes display interdependence but little contagion. The results indicate contagion effects only from Thailand to Korea.

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Paper provided by Claremont Colleges in its series Claremont Colleges Working Papers with number 2001-23.

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Handle: RePEc:clm:clmeco:2001-23

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  1. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?," NBER Working Papers 6806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Reuven Glick, 1998. "Thoughts on the origins of the Asia crisis: impulses and propagation mechanisms," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Scharfstein, David. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1988. "Herd behavior and investment," Working papers WP 2062-88., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  4. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. François, LONGIN & Bruno, SOLNIK, 1998. "Correlation Structure of International Equity Markets During Extremely Volatile Periods," Les Cahiers de Recherche 646, HEC Paris.
  6. In, Francis & Kim, Sangbae & Yoon, Jai Hyung & Viney, Christopher, 2001. "Dynamic interdependence and volatility transmission of Asian stock markets: Evidence from the Asian crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 87-96.
  7. Ang, James S. & Ma, Yulong, 2001. "The behavior of financial analysts during the Asian financial crisis in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 233-263, June.
  8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1999. "Regional Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets," NBER Working Papers 7153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/155, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
  12. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-44.
  13. Hahm, Joon-Ho & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2000. "The Korean financial crisis: an asymmetric information perspective," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 21-52, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Simone Manganelli & Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gerard, 2004. "The Contagion Box: Measuring Co-Movements in Financial Markets by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 77, Econometric Society.

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