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The Falsification of Four Popular Hypotheses about International Financial Behavior during the Asian Crisis

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Author Info
Thomas D. Willett (Claremont McKenna College and Claremont Graduate University)
Aida Budiman (Claremont Graduate University)
Arthur Denzau (Claremont Graduate University)
Gab-Je Jo (Claremont Graduate University)
Cesar Ramos (Claremont Graduate University)
John Thomas (Claremont Graduate University)
Abstract

Various claims have been made about the causes of the Asian crisis and its spread. Here, we use data on the behavior of capital flows during the crisis to test the strong forms of four such hypotheses, including the dominant role of portfolio investors and hedge funds in initiating and spreading the crisis; moral hazard; and, finally, the role of Japanese banks in spreading the trouble to countries in which they were the largest source of funds. All are falsified as monocausal explanations. For example, portfolio investments that could not have been subject to substantial moral hazard continued to flow into Asia until very shortly before the crisis. Likewise, contrary to common expectations banks were a much larger source of capital outflows during the crisis than were portfolio investors. While falsified in their strongest forms, several of these hypotheses in less strong form should play a role in a more nuanced analysis. It is time to move past simple single-factor approaches in order to produce a more complete, synthetic explanation of this episode.

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Paper provided by Claremont Colleges in its series Claremont Colleges Working Papers with number 2001-06.

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Date of creation: May 2001
Date of revision: Sep 2001
Handle: RePEc:clm:clmeco:2001-06

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Classens, S. & Dooley, M.P. & Warner, A., 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold," Papers 501, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
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  2. Takatoshi Ito, 1999. "Capital Flows in Asia," Discussion Paper Series a371, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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  3. Timothy D. Lane & Steven Phillips, 2000. "Does IMF Financing Result in Moral Hazard?," IMF Working Papers 00/168, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Eric van Wincoop & Kei-Mu Yi, 2000. "Asia crisis postmortem: where did the money go and did the United States benefit?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 51-70. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "herd Behavior in Financial Markets - A Review," IMF Working Papers 00/48, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Bong-Chan Kho & Dong Lee & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "U.S. Banks, Crises, and Bailouts: From Mexico to LTCM," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 28-31, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ricardo Hausmann, 2000. "Is FDI a Safer Form of Financing?," RES Working Papers 4201, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Isabel Schnabel & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2002. "Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending: A Test," IMF Working Papers 02/181, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Contagion-Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
  10. repec:fth:inadeb:416 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Alberto Gabriele & Korkut Baratav & Ashok Parikh, 2000. "Instability and Volatility of Capital Flows to Developing Countries," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(8), pages 1031-1056, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil," IMF Working Papers 00/160, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Anne Jansen & Bankim Chadha & Laura E. Kodres & Donald J. Mathieson & Sunil Sharma & Barry J. Eichengreen, 1998. "Hedge Funds and Financial Market Dynamics," IMF Occasional Papers 166, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian default and the contagion to Brazil," Textos para discussão 420, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  17. Dooley, Michael P, 2000. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-72, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Caroline van Rijckeghem & Beatrice Weder, 2000. "Spillovers Through Banking Centers - A Panel Data Analysis," IMF Working Papers 00/88, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Michael P. Dooley & Inseok Shin, 2000. "Private Inflows when Crises are Anticipated: A Case Study of Korea," NBER Working Papers 7992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Thomas D. Willett & Nancy Neiman Auerbach, 2002. "The Political Economy of Perverse Financial Liberalization: Examples from the Asian Crisis," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2002-26, Claremont Colleges. [Downloadable!]
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