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Screen Wars, Star Wars, and Sequels: Nonparametric Reanalysis of Movie Profitability

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Author Info
W. D. Walls

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Abstract

In this paper we use nonparametric statistical tools to quantify motion-picture profit. We quantify the unconditional distribution of profit, the distribution of profit conditional on stars and sequels, and we also model the conditional expectation of movie profits using a nonparametric data-driven regression model. The flexibility of the nonparametric approach accommodates the full range of possible relationships among the variables without prior specification of a functional form, thereby capturing non-linearities and interactions without introducing possible specification bias. We find that marginal returns to budgets and opening screens vary over the domain of these variables. We also find that the conditional distribution of movie profit and the expected level of profit are related to the use of movie stars and sequels.

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File URL: http://econ.ucalgary.ca/sites/econ.ucalgary.ca/files/publications/profit2.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Calgary in its series Working Papers with number 2008-28.

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Date of creation: 24 Jan 2008
Date of revision: 24 Jan 2008
Handle: RePEc:clg:wpaper:2008-28

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L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Li, Qi & Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Racine, Jeffrey S., 2009. "A nonparametric test for equality of distributions with mixed categorical and continuous data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 186-200, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Steven Albert, 1999. "Movie Stars and the Distribution of Financially Successful Films in the Motion Picture Industry," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 325-329, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 2004. "Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1035-1057, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Li, Qi & Ouyang, Desheng, 2005. "Uniform convergence rate of kernel estimation with mixed categorical and continuous data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 291-296, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Steven Albert, 1998. "Movie Stars and the Distribution of Financially Successful Films in the Motion Picture Industry," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 249-270, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Peter Hall & Jeff Racine & Qi Li, 2004. "Cross-Validation and the Estimation of Conditional Probability Densities," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 1015-1026, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Smith, Sharon P & Smith, V Kerry, 1986. "Successful Movies: A Preliminary Empirical Analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 501-07, May.
  8. John Sedgwick & Michael Pokorny, 1999. "Movie Stars and the Distribution of Financially Successful Films in the Motion Picture Industry," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 319-323, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Arthur De Vany, 2002. "Does Hollywood Make Too Many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 425-452, July. [Downloadable!]
  10. Racine, Jeff & Li, Qi, 2004. "Nonparametric estimation of regression functions with both categorical and continuous data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 99-130, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. De Vany, Arthur S & Walls, W David, 1997. "The Market for Motion Pictures: Rank, Revenue, and Survival," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 783-97, October.
  12. Ravid, S Abraham, 1999. "Information, Blockbusters, and Stars: A Study of the Film Industry," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 463-92, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Daniel J. Henderson & Subal C. Kumbhakar, 2006. "Public and Private Capital Productivity Puzzle: A Nonparametric Approach," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 219–232, July.
  14. Arthur De Vany & W. Walls, 1999. "Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 285-318, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W David, 1996. "Bose-Einstein Dynamics and Adaptive Contracting in the Motion Picture Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1493-1514, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Cheng Hsiao & Qi Li & Jeff Racine, 2006. "A Consistent Model Specification Test with Mixed Discrete and Continuous Data," IEPR Working Papers 06.47, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Racine, Jeff, 1997. "Consistent Significance Testing for Nonparametric Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 369-78, July.
  18. De Vany, A. & Walls, W.D., 2000. "Does Hollywood make too many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation," Papers 99-00-24, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
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