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The Pathway To Permanent Jobs: A Time Event Analysis Of Young Italian Workers

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Author Info

  • Leandro Elia

    ()
    (Dipartimento di Economia e Statistica, Università della Calabria)

Abstract

The paper analyses the effect of fixed-term contracts on the probability of finding a permanent job in the Italian labour market. I estimate a continuous proportional hazard model with nonparametric smoothing splines for time varying continuous covariates. It will be shown that such a method excellently improves the model specification with regard to proportionality assumption. Results surprisingly suggest that the hazard rate of switching to permanent employment is higher for unskilled workers than skilled workers; while transition probability is not affected by gender differences per se, rather individual traits for females and males act differently on the baseline hazard. Results show that a period of temporary employment varying between two or three years is needed before obtaining a permanent jobs. Potential implications of the main findings are provided.

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File URL: http://www.ecostat.unical.it/RePEc/WorkingPapers/WP18_2010.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010-10
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza (Ex Dipartimento di Economia e Statistica) in its series Working Papers with number 201018.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:clb:wpaper:201018

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Postal: Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza, Ponte Pietro Bucci, Cubo 0/C, I-87036 Arcavacata di Rende, CS, Italy
Phone: +39 0984 492413
Fax: +39 0984 492421
Web page: http://www.unical.it/portale/strutture/dipartimenti_240/disesf/
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Related research

Keywords: fixed-term job; duration analysis; penalized likelihood; smoothing spline;

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  1. D'Addio, Anna Cristina & Rosholm, Michael, 2005. "Exits from temporary jobs in Europe: A competing risks analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 449-468, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Bruno, Giovanni S. F. & Caroleo, Floro Ernesto & Dessy, Orietta, 2012. "Stepping Stones versus Dead End Jobs: Exits from Temporary Contracts in Italy after the 2003 Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 6746, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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