An Examination of the Economic and Muthian Rationality of Price Level Forecasts
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
- Sargent, Thomas J, 1972. "Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 74-97, Part I Fe.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
- Darby, Michael R, 1976.
"Rational Expectations under Conditions of Costly Information,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 889-895, June.
- Michael R. Darby, 1974. "Rational Expectations Under Conditions of Costly Information," UCLA Economics Working Papers 045, UCLA Department of Economics.
- M. Nerlove & S. Wage, 1964. "On the Optimality of Adaptive Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 207-224, January.
- Pesando, James E, 1975. "A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 849-858, August.
- Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
- Mullineaux, Donald J, 1978. "On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 329-336, April.
- Feige, Edgar L & Pearce, Douglas K, 1976. "Economically Rational Expectations: Are Innovations in the Rate of Inflation Independent of Innovations in Measures of Monetary and Fiscal Policy?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 499-522, June.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
- Rodney L. Jacobs & Robert A. Jones, 1977. "A Bayesian Approach to Adaptive Expectations," UCLA Economics Working Papers 093, UCLA Department of Economics.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982.
"Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 63-72, March.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1981. "Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," NBER Working Papers 0693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996.
"A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models,"
Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
- Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review Of Alternative Expectations Regimes In Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, And Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-19, October.
- Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1985.
"Stock Prices and Economic News,"
The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 49-67, January.
- Douglas K. Pearce & V. Vance Roley, 1984. "Stock Prices and Economic News," NBER Working Papers 1296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
- El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
- Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Working Papers hal-02187362, HAL.
- Bharat R. Kolluri, 1982. "Anticipated Price Changes, Inflation Uncertainty, And Capital Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 5(2), pages 135-149, June.
- Abel, Andrew B. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1983.
"An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-24.
- Andrew B. Abel & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1981. "An Integrated View of Tests of Rationality, Market Efficiency, and the Short-Run Neutrality of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 0726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sargent, Thomas J., 1979.
"A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 133-143, January.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1978. "A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure," Staff Report 26, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Keith K.W. Chan & Toan M. Pham, 1990. "Models of Inflation Forecasts: Some Australian Evidence," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 15(1), pages 89-105, June.
- James Chan-Lee, 1980. "A review of recent work in the area of inflationary expectations," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 116(1), pages 45-86, March.
- Rodney L. Jacobs & Robert A. Jones, 1978. "Price Expectations in the United States: 1947-1973," UCLA Economics Working Papers 107, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02187362, HAL.
- El-Shagi, Makram, 2009. "Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Peter Saunders, 1981. "The Formation of Producers' Price Expectations in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(4), pages 368-378, December.
- Rodney L. Jacobs & Robert A. Jones, 1977. "A Bayesian Approach to Adaptive Expectations," UCLA Economics Working Papers 093, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982.
"Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1980. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2023.
"On FIRE, news, and expectations,"
Working Papers
42, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
- Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot, 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 18259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008.
"Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
- Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas J. Muench, 2003. "Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited," Working Papers wp059, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Hugo Benitez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Tom Muench, 2005. "Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited," Department of Economics Working Papers 05-04, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
- Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Inflation and the Valuation of Corporate Equities," NBER Working Papers 0824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cla:uclawp:135a. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: David K. Levine (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econ.ucla.edu/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.