History-Dependent Risk Attitude
AbstractWe propose a model of history-dependent risk attitude (HDRA), allowing the attitude of a decision-maker (DM) towards risk at each stage of a T-stage lottery to evolve as a function of his history of disappointments and elations in prior stages. We establish an equivalence between the existence of an HDRA representation and two documented cognitive biases. First, the DMâs risk attitudes are reinforced by prior experiences: he becomes more risk averse after suffering a disappointment and less risk averse after being elated. Second, the DM displays a primacy effect: early outcomes have the strongest effect on risk attitude. Furthermore, the DM lowers his threshold for elation after a disappointing outcome and raises it after an elating outcome; this makes disappointment more likely after elation and vice-versa, leading to statistically reversing risk attitudes. âGray areasâ in the elation-disappointment assignment are connected to optimism and pessimism in determining endogenous reference points.
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Date of creation: 22 Sep 2010
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- David Dillenberger & Kareen Rozen, 2011. "History-Dependent Risk Attitude," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-004, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- David Dillenberger & Kareen Rozen, 2010. "History-Dependent Risk Attitude," Levine's Working Paper Archive 661465000000000321, David K. Levine.
- David Dillenberger & Kareen Rozen, 2010. "History-Dependent Risk Attitude," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1763, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2012.
- David Dillenberger & Kareen Rozen, 2011. "History-Dependent Risk Attitude," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000066, David K. Levine.
- D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics; Underlying Principles
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
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