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Signaling in Financial Reorganization: Theory and Evidence from Canada

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  • Jocelyn Martel

Abstract

This article proposes a signaling model of financial reorganization in which the firms use the provisions of the reorganization proposal, in particular the split between short term cash and deferred payments, to signal their viability to uninformed unsecured creditors. The empirical analysis based on an original data set of 393 Canadian firms in reorganization confirms that the probability of success in reorganization increases with the proportion of short term cash payments (3 to 6 months) to unsecured creditors, when controlling for the fact that firms are cash constrained. Also, the probability of acceptance of a proposal by unsecured creditors increases with the proportion of up-front payments (1 month) and the perceived probability of success of the proposal by unsecured creditors. Cet article propose un modèle de comportement de la firme en réorganisation financière dans lequel la structure du contrat de réorganisation, et plus particulièrement la répartition entre les paiements comptants et différés, est utilisée afin de transmettre de l'information aux créanciers non-informés sur la viabilité de la firme. Les prédictions du modèle sont testées à l'aide d'une banque de données originale de 393 entreprises canadiennes en réorganisation financière. L'analyse empirique confirme que la probabilité de succès en réorganisation augmente avec la proportion des paiements à court terme (3 à 6 mois) aux créanciers non-garantis, après avoir contrôlé pour la contrainte de liquidité des entreprises. De plus, la probabilité d'acceptation d'une proposition par les créanciers non-garantis augmente avec la proportion des paiements comptants (1 mois) et la probabilité de succès de la proposition telle qu'anticipée par les créanciers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 95s-34.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 1995
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Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:95s-34

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Keywords: Financial reorganization; Signaling model; Réorganisation financière ; Modèle de comportement;

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References

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  1. Myers, Stewart C., 1984. "Capital structure puzzle," Working papers 1548-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  2. Fisher, T.C.G. & Martel, J., 1994. "The Creditors' Financial Reorganization Decision: New Evidence from Canadian Data," Cahiers de recherche 9417, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  3. Asquith, Paul & Gertner, Robert & Scharfstein, David, 1994. "Anatomy of Financial Distress: An Examination of Junk-Bond Issuers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 625-58, August.
  4. Mark L. Gertler, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," NBER Working Papers 2559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gunderson, Morley & Kervin, John & Reid, Frank, 1986. "Logit Estimates of Strike Incidence from Canadian Contract Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 257-76, April.
  6. Philippe Aghion & Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1992. "The Economics of Bankruptcy Reform," NBER Working Papers 4097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Myers, Stewart C, 1984. " The Capital Structure Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 575-92, July.
  8. Robert Gertner & David Scharfstein, 1991. "A Theory of Workouts and the Effects of Reorganization Law," NBER Technical Working Papers 0103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Giammarino, Ronald M, 1989. "The Resolution of Financial Distress," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 25-47.
  10. Lucian Arye Bebchuk & Howard F. Chang, 1991. "Bargaining and the Division of Value in Corporate Reorganization," NBER Technical Working Papers 0097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Toni M. Whited, 1990. "Debt, liquidity constraints, and corporate investment: evidence from panel data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 114, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Capital Structure Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 1393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. James, Christopher, 1987. "Some evidence on the uniqueness of bank loans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-235, December.
  14. In-Koo Cho & David M. Kreps, 1997. "Signaling Games and Stable Equilibria," Levine's Working Paper Archive 896, David K. Levine.
  15. Chemmanur, Thomas J & Fulghieri, Paolo, 1994. "Reputation, Renegotiation, and the Choice between Bank Loans and Publicly Traded Debt," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 475-506.
  16. Jocelyn Martel, 1991. "Bankruptcy Law and the Canadian Experience: An Economic Appraisal," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 17(1), pages 52-63, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Fisher, Timothy C G & Martel, Jocelyn, 1999. "Should We Abolish Chapter 11? Evidence from Canada," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 233-57, January.
  2. Jocelyn Martel, 1996. "Solutions au stress financier : Un survol de la littérature," CIRANO Working Papers 96s-03, CIRANO.
  3. Martel, Jocelyn, 1996. "Solutions au stress financier," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 72(1), pages 51-78, mars.

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