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A Model-Free Measure of Aggregate Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Prediction of Market Returns

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Author Info

  • René Garcia
  • Daniel Mantilla-Garcia
  • Lionel Martellini

Abstract

In this paper, we formally show that the cross-sectional variance of stock returns is a consistent and asymptotically efficient estimator for aggregate idiosyncratic volatility. This measure has two key advantages: it is model-free and observable at any frequency. Previous approaches have used monthly model based measures constructed from time series of daily returns. The newly proposed cross-sectional volatility measure is a strong predictor for future returns on the aggregate stock market at the daily frequency. Using the cross-section of size and book-to-market portfolios, we show that the portfolios’ exposures to the aggregate idiosyncratic volatility risk predict the cross-section of expected returns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2013s-01.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2013s-01

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Keywords: Aggregate idiosyncratic volatility; cross-sectional dispersion; prediction of market returns;

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References

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  1. Wei Huang & Qianqiu Liu & S. Ghon Rhee & Liang Zhang, 2010. "Return Reversals, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Expected Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 147-168, January.
  2. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
  3. Brunnermeier, Markus K & Gollier, Christian & Parker, Jonathan A, 2007. "Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices and the Preference for Skewed Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 6181, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  5. Wei, Steven X. & Zhang, Chu, 2005. "Idiosyncratic risk does not matter: A re-examination of the relationship between average returns and average volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 603-621, March.
  6. Malkiel, Burton & Campbell, John & Lettau, Martin & Xu, Yexiao, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Scholarly Articles 3128707, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Merton, Robert C., 1987. "A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information," Working papers 1869-87., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  8. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2008. "Stocks as Lotteries: The Implications of Probability Weighting for Security Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2066-2100, December.
  9. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fu, Fangjian, 2009. "Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 24-37, January.
  11. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, 08.
  12. Allen, Linda & Bali, Turan G., 2007. "Cyclicality in catastrophic and operational risk measurements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1191-1235, April.
  13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  14. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory And Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53, February.
  15. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  16. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
  17. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Miffre, Joëlle & Brooks, Chris & Li, Xiafei, 2013. "Idiosyncratic volatility and the pricing of poorly-diversified portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 78-85.

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