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L’impact du mix fiscal sur la croissance économique des provinces canadiennes, 1981–2010

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  • François Vaillancourt

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  • Pouya Ebrahimi
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    Abstract

    Cette étude utilise les recettes fiscales provinciales de la taxe à la consommation, de l’impôt sur le revenu corporatif et de l’impôt sur le revenu personnel pour mesurer l’impact de la taxation sur le taux de croissance du produit intérieur brut (PIB) des provinces canadiennes pour la période de 1981 à 2010. Les estimations suggèrent que l’impôt sur le revenu corporatif et la taxe à la consommation ont un effet négatif sur le taux de croissance du PIB par rapport à l’impôt sur le revenu personnel. De plus, l’analyse empirique des déterminants de la croissance économique des provinces canadiennes indique que le niveau initial du PIB a un effet significatif sur l’évolution du taux de croissance du PIB pour les périodes subséquentes. Ce résultat confirme l’existence de la convergence conditionnelle à l’échelle des provinces au Canada : les provinces de l’Atlantique, dont le PIB réel par habitant était le plus faible au Canada en 1961, ont connu la croissance économique la plus importante par rapport au reste des provinces canadiennes pour la période de 1981 à 2010. Par ailleurs, l’ouverture au commerce, c’est-à-dire le ratio de la somme des exportations et des importations provinciales sur le PIB, se manifeste comme un autre facteur significatif au progrès économique des provinces canadiennes. Le rapport examine aussi la robustesse des résultats obtenus en appliquant plusieurs spécifications alternatives au modèle de base. Les estimations sont robustes aux différentes spécifications.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Project Reports with number 2013rp-03.

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    Date of creation: 01 Feb 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:cir:cirpro:2013rp-03

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    1. Engen, Eric M. & Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "Taxation and Economic Growth," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 617-42, December.
    2. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
    3. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Roubini, Nouriel, 1998. "Growth Effects of Income and Consumption Taxes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1979, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Widmalm, Frida, 2001. " Tax Structure and Growth: Are Some Taxes Better Than Others?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 107(3-4), pages 199-219, June.
    6. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Christopher Heady & Åsa Johansson & Jens Arnold & Bert Brys & Laura Vartia, 2009. "Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Growth," Studies in Economics 0925, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
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