Fiscal Expectations on the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data
AbstractThe paper uses survey data to analyze whether the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) has changed financial market’s expectations on government budget deficits in France, Germany, Italy, and the UK. Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial experts’ deficit forecasts has increased in France during the SGP. The Pact seems to have also promoted a gain in credibility of European Commission’s deficit forecasts in France, Italy, and in the UK, particularly after its reform in 2005 and up to December 2007. Nevertheless, the National Fiscal Authorities’ forecasts of France, Germany, and Italy seem to have not been credible among market experts during the SGP. These results suggest that additional measures could be taken in order to make the fiscal rules of the Pact more credible among market specialists.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2010-05.
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Expectations; Credibility; Stability and growth pact; Survey data;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2010-04-17 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-04-17 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2009. "New Evidence on the Effectiveness of Europe's Fiscal Restrictions," Working Papers 2009-13, CEPII research center.
- Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007.
"Prudent Budgetary Policy: Political Economy of Precautionary Taxation,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2007/39, European University Institute.
- Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Prudent Budgetary Policy: Political Economy of Precautionary Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 1973, CESifo Group Munich.
- Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos & Beetsma, Roel, 2008. "The political economy of structural reforms under a deficit restriction," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 179-198, March.
- Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2014.
"Fiscal Forecast Errors: Governments Versus Independent Agencies?,"
RB2014/1/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
- Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 1233, Banco de Espa�a.
- Nikolay Markov, 2010. "A Regime Switching Model for the European Central Bank," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 10091, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.