Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Les impacts économiques du changement climatique : enjeux de modélisation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Pierre Besson
  • Nina Kousnetzoff
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Large differences remain between various assessments of the economic impacts of climate change and of the cost of mitigation policies. These are partly due to a number of questionable assumptions in energy-economic modeling, originating in a value system one should be aware of. This study sets up a frame of reference to analyze the impact of modeling choices on the results. Energy-economic models are analyzed, with four examples: ENV-Linkages, GEMINI-E3, IMACLIM-R and POLES. Top-Down models do not catch enough technical progress potentials, whereas Bottom-Up models do not model satisfactorily the feedback effects of the energy sector on the rest of the economy. Recursive dynamic models do not take enough into account the agents’ expectations and cannot build normative scenarios. On the contrary, some hybrid models and all the intertemporal optimization models include an endogenization mechanism which confuses the results. We then analyze the consequences of theoretical differences between models on a practical case: the assessment of the economic value of carbone by GEMINI-E3, IMACLIM-R and POLES. The Stern Review is analyzed in the broader framework of economic growth-environment modelization. The differences in results with other “cost-benefit” models are due to incomplete knowledge of future damages, the choice of an actualization rate and the assessment of non-market damages.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-36.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2009-36.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: Dec 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-36

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 113, rue de Grenelle, 75700 Paris SP07
    Phone: 33 01 53 68 55 00
    Fax: 33 01 53 68 55 01
    Web page: http://www.cepii.fr
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Sir Nicholas Stern, 2006. "What is the Economics of Climate Change?," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 7(2), pages 1-10, April.
    2. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
    3. Olivier Godard, 2007. "Le Rapport Stern sur l'économie du changement climatique était-il une manipulation grossière de la méthodologie économique ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 0(4), pages 475-506.
    4. Lawrence Goulder, 1995. "Environmental taxation and the double dividend: A reader's guide," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 157-183, August.
    5. Sandra Poncet, 2006. "The Long Term Growth Prospects of the World Economy: Horizon 2050," Working Papers 2006-16, CEPII research center.
    6. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
    7. Jean Charles Hourcade & Mark Jaccard & Chris Bataille & Frédéric Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges," Post-Print halshs-00471234, HAL.
    8. Frederic Ghersi and Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2006. "Macroeconomic Consistency issues in E3 Modeling: The Continued Fable of the Elephant and the Rabbit," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 39-62.
    9. Atsushi Kurosawa & Hiroshi Yagita & Weisheng Zhou & Koji Tokimatsu & Yukio Yanagisawa, 1999. "Analysis of Carbon Emission Stabilization Targets and Adaptation by Integrated Assessment Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 157-175.
    10. Vincent M. Otto & Andreas Löschel & John Reilly, 2006. "Directed Technical Change and Climate Policy," Working Papers 2006.81, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. Robert Ayres & Jörg Walter, 1991. "The greenhouse effect: Damages, costs and abatement," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 1(3), pages 237-270, September.
    12. Alain Bernard & Marc Vielle, 2008. "GEMINI-E3, a general equilibrium model of international–national interactions between economy, energy and the environment," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 173-206, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.