This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Demographic Uncertainty in Europe Implications on Macro Economic Trends and Pension Reforms. An Investigation with the INGENUE2 Model

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Michel Aglietta
Vladimir Borgy

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Ageing is a main concern in Western Europe for the present half century. It impinges heavily upon the financing of retirement because a shrinking labour force will entail decelerating growth. Moreover, contrary to popular opinion and to most prospective studies which rely on deterministic demographic projections, the determinants of population size and structure are stochastic. The present paper makes use of the INGENUE2 model to assess the economic impact of demographic uncertainty in Western Europe. Demographic uncertainty affects saving, financial conditions and growth significantly from year 2025 onwards. Worst case scenarios can have crippling effects on the financing of public pension under present retirement policies. It makes all the more necessary to study alternatives. We simulate a policy that involves the development of a funding system to substitute to part of the projected increase in the contribution rate, both under deterministic and stochastic demographic forecasts

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/workpap/summaries/2008/wp08-22.htm
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2008-22.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-22

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 9 rue Georges Pitard, 75740 Paris Cedex 15
Phone: 33 01 53 68 55 00
Fax: 33 01 53 68 55 01
Web page: http://www.cepii.fr
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Models; international capital flows; life cycle models and saving; demographic trends and forecasts;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc and its associated services are free for contributors and users, and do not accept any advertising.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.