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Imitation Amongst Exchange-Rate Forecasters: Evidence from Survey Data

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Author Info
Michel Beine
Agnes Benassy-Quere
Helene Colas

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Abstract

In this paper we assess the extent of herd behaviour in the major foreign exchange markets using monthly survey data relative concerning individual forecasts for the DM (or euro) and the yen against the US dollar. We conduct Granger-causality tests and SURE estimations over two distinct periods (1990-1994 and 1996-2001) to analyze whether forecasters where subject to imitation during these periods.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2003-08.

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Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-08

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Keywords: Herding exchange-rate forecasts survey data

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "herd Behavior in Financial Markets - A Review," IMF Working Papers 00/48, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1999. "The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. repec:cup:macdyn:v:4:y:2000:i:2:p:170-96 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Rama Cont & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 1997. "Herd behavior and aggregate fluctuations in financial markets," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500028, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalisists," NBER Working Papers 1854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Topol, Richard, 1991. "Bubbles and Volatility of Stock Prices: Effect of Mimetic Contagion," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 786-800, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
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  10. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Guillaume Gaulier & Francoise Lemoine & Deniz Unal-Kesenci, 2005. "China’s Integration in East Asia: Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade," Working Papers 2005-09, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  2. Agnès Benassy-Quere & Nicolas Gobalraja & Alain Trannoy, 2005. "Tax Competition and Public Input," Working Papers 2005-08, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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