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L'importance des exclus de l'integration monetaire en Europe

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Author Info
Philippe Martin

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Abstract

Ce sont les couts de l'inclusion d'un pays dans l'UEM qui ont servi a determiner quels sont les pays qui devraient participer a l'UEM. Ainsi, le choix implicite de l'exclusion de l'Italie, a ete fait selon la reflexion, essentiellement d'origine allemande, que l'Italie a l'interieur impliquerait des couts trop eleves du fait de la situation de sa dette publique. On a aussi semble reflechir comme si la formation d'une UEM partielle n'aurait pas d'impact sur la politique monetaire des pays exclus. Nous voulons dans ce papier renverser cette perspective et reflechir aux implications de la creation de l'UEM sur la politique monetaire des pays exclus et l'effet en retour que celle-ci aura sur les pays de l'UEM. Contrairement a l'analyse traditionnelle de la theorie des zones monetaires optimales, notre analyse porte sur les couts associes non pas a l'inclusion mais a l'exclusion d'un pays d'une union monetaire. A cet egard, nous interpretons l'episode recent des depreciations competitives de la Lire et de la Peseta comme un avant gout de ce qui attend les membres d'une UEM restreinte.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 1995-08.

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Date of creation: Nov 1995
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-08

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Related research
Keywords: POLITICAL ECONOMY; ECONOMIC INTEGRATION; MONETARY POLICY;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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  1. Olivier Rouguet & Pierre Villa, 2000. "Le passage des retraites de la repartition a la capitalisation obligatoire : des simulations a l'aide d'une maquette calibree," Working Papers 2000-02, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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