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Long-Term Asset Price Volatility and Macroeconomics Fluctations

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  • Miguel Angel Iraola

    (Centro de Investigacion Economica (CIE), Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM))

  • Manuel S. Santos

    (Department of Economics, University of Miami)

Abstract

We analyze a stochastic growth model with lags in the operation of new technologies. Stock values are impacted by news on technological innovations and some other external shocks affecting the economy. Episodes of technology adoption may generate long fluctuations in the aggregate value of stocks. We asses the quantitative importance of various macroeconomic variables in accounting for both the observed volatility of stock values and the less pronounced volatility of real macroeconomic aggregates. Our analysis singles out price markups and leverage as key determinants of asset price volatility, and confers a rather limited role to adjustment costs, taxes, and labor and financial frictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Angel Iraola & Manuel S. Santos, 2009. "Long-Term Asset Price Volatility and Macroeconomics Fluctations," Working Papers 0909, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    • Handle: RePEc:cie:wpaper:0909
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariano Max Croce, 2010. "Tax Uncertainty, Leverage and Asset Prices," 2010 Meeting Papers 1084, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Comin, Diego & Mestieri, Martí, 2014. "Technology Diffusion: Measurement, Causes, and Consequences," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 2, pages 565-622, Elsevier.
    3. Ryo Jinnai, 2015. "Innovation, Product Cycle, and Asset Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 484-504, July.
    4. Luigi Bocola & Nils M. Gornemann, 2013. "Risk, economic growth and the value of U.S. corporations," Working Papers 13-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Nicolae B. Gârleanu & Stavros Panageas & Jianfeng Yu, 2009. "Technological Growth and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 15340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Diego Comin & Ana Maria Santacreu & Mark Gertler & Phuong Ngo, 2018. "Stock Price Fluctuations and Productivity Growth," 2018 Meeting Papers 1147, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technological innovation; Stock market; Markups; Leverages; Taxes; Labor Frictions; Financial Frictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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