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The Effect of the One-Child Policy on Fertility in China: Identification Based on the Differences-in-Differences

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  • Hongbin Li
  • Junsen Zhang
  • Yi Zhu

Abstract

This paper measures the effect of China's one-child policy on fertility by exploring the natural experiment that has been created by China's unique affirmative birth control policy, which is possibly the largest social experiment in human history. Because the one-child policy only applied to Han Chinese, but not to ethnic minorities, we construct a differences-in-differences estimator to identify the effect of the policy on fertility. Such a natural experiment is a rare opportunity, whether for the analysis of the effect on fertility or for the analysis of economics in general. Using two rounds of the Chinese Population Census, we find that the one-child policy has had a large effect on fertility. The average effect on the post-treatment cohorts on the probability of having a second child is as large as -11 percentage points. We also find that the magnitude is larger in urban areas and for more educated women. Our robustness tests suggest that our differences-in-differences estimates of the effect of the one-child policy are not very likely to be driven by other policy or socio-economic changes that have affected the Han and the minorities differently.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang & Yi Zhu, 2005. "The Effect of the One-Child Policy on Fertility in China: Identification Based on the Differences-in-Differences," Discussion Papers 00019, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:chk:cuhkdc:00019
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    Cited by:

    1. Yin, Yongkun, 2023. "China’s demographic transition: A quantitative analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. Junsen Zhang, 2017. "The Evolution of China's One-Child Policy and Its Effects on Family Outcomes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 141-160, Winter.
    3. Mu, Ren & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2011. "Why does the Great Chinese Famine affect the male and female survivors differently? Mortality selection versus son preference," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 92-105, January.
    4. Liao, Pei-Ju, 2013. "The one-child policy: A macroeconomic analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 49-62.
    5. Wang, Xuebo & Zhang, Junsen, 2018. "Beyond the Quantity–Quality tradeoff: Population control policy and human capital investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 222-234.
    6. Hongbin Li & Lei Li & Binzhen Wu & Yanyan Xiong, 2012. "The End of Cheap Chinese Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 57-74, Fall.
    7. Pauline Rossi & Yun Xiao, 2020. "Spillovers in Childbearing Decisions and Fertility Transitions: Evidence from China," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-031/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Kuhn, Britta & Neusius, Thomas, 2022. "Will China's three-child policy defuse the demographic time bomb?," wifin Working Paper Series 14/2022, RheinMain University of Applied Sciences, Wiesbaden Institute of Finance and Insurance (wifin).
    9. Yongkun Yin, 2022. "Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility: Evidence from China’s Population Control Policies," Working Papers wp2022_2211, CEMFI.
    10. Donghui Wang & Guangqing Chi, 2017. "Different places, different stories: A study of the spatial heterogeneity of county-level fertility in China," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(16), pages 493-526.
    11. Anh P. Ngo, 2020. "Effects of Vietnam’s two-child policy on fertility, son preference, and female labor supply," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 751-794, July.
    12. Cheng, Hua & Ma, Yuanyuan & Qi, Shusen & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2021. "Enforcing government policies: The role of state-owned enterprise in China’s one child policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    13. Chen, Jiwei & Guo, Jiangying, 2022. "The effect of female education on fertility: Evidence from China’s compulsory schooling reform," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Sung Hyo Hong & Ryan Sullivan, 2016. "The Effects Of Subsidies For Childbearing On Migration And Fertility: Evidence From Korea," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-16, September.
    15. Yuyu Chen & Ginger Zhe Jin & Yang Yue, 2024. "Peer Migration in China," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(2), pages 257-313, April.
    16. Avraham Ebenstein, 2010. "The "Missing Girls" of China and the Unintended Consequences of the One Child Policy," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(1).
    17. Yi Chen & Hanming Fang, 2018. "The Long-Term Consequences of Having Fewer Children in Old Age: Evidence from China’s “Later, Longer, Fewer” Campaign," NBER Working Papers 25041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Lu, Di, 2018. "China’s Selective Two-Child Policy and Its Impact on the Marriage Market," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181586, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Wang, Fei, 2012. "Family Planning Policy in China: Measurement and Impact on Fertility," MPRA Paper 42226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Chen, Yi & Huang, Yingfei, 2018. "The Power of the Government: China's Family Planning Leading. Group and the Fertility Decline since 1970," GLO Discussion Paper Series 204, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    21. Cai, Fang & Giles, John & Meng, Xin, 2006. "How well do children insure parents against low retirement income? An analysis using survey data from urban China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2229-2255, December.
    22. Fei Wang & Liqiu Zhao & Zhong Zhao, 2017. "China’s family planning policies and their labor market consequences," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 31-68, January.
    23. Yuyu Chen & Ginger Zhe Jin & Yang Yue, 2024. "Peer Migration in China," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(2), pages 257-313, April.
    24. Meng, Lina & Peng, Lu & Zhou, Yinggang, 2023. "Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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