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Linkages Between Direct and Securitized Real Estate

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Author Info

  • Elias OIKARINEN

    (Turku School of Economics)

  • Martin HOESLI

    (University of Geneva (HEC and SFI), University of Aberdeen (Business School) and Bordeaux Ecole de Management)

  • Camilo SERRANO

    (University of Geneva (HEC))

Abstract

Using data for the 1978-2008 period, this study presents evidence for cointegration between securitized (NAREIT) and direct (NCREIF) total return indices. Cointegration between the indices indicates that REITs and direct real estate are substitutable in the portfolio of a long-horizon buy-and-hold investor. Since the real estate indices are not found to be cointegrated with the stock market, REITs and direct real estate are likely to have similar long-term diversification benefits in a stock portfolio. In line with prior expectations, only direct real estate is found to currently adjust towards the cointegrating relation, with NAREIT returns leading NCREIF returns. However, giving support to the often stated argument regarding weaker informational efficiency of the REIT market prior to the “new REIT era”, the results show evidence for the predictability of NAREIT returns during the 1980s. It is also found that at the beginning of the “new REIT era” a large and long-lasting deviation from the long-run relation between NAREIT and NCREIF emerged. However, there is no evidence of a permanent structural break in the long-run relation since the deviation appears to have been only temporary.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 09-26.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation:
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Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0926

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Web page: http://www.SwissFinanceInstitute.ch
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Related research

Keywords: Cointegration; Vector Error-Correction Models; Direct Real Estate; Securitized Real Estate; REITs; Diversification;

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References

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  1. Johansen, S ren, 2000. "A Bartlett Correction Factor For Tests On The Cointegrating Relations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 740-778, October.
  2. Mei, Jianping & Lee, Ahyee, 1994. "Is There a Real Estate Factor Premium?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 113-26, September.
  3. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
  4. Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1494, Econometric Society.
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  12. Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. " Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-93, December.
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  14. F.C. Neil Myer & James R. Webb, 1993. "Return Properties of Equity REITs, Common Stocks, and Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(1), pages 87-106.
  15. Eichholtz, Piet M A & Hartzell, David J, 1996. "Property Shares, Appraisals and the Stock Market: An International Perspective," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 163-78, March.
  16. William N. Goetzmann & Roger G. Ibbotson, 1990. "The Performance Of Real Estate As An Asset Class," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 3(1), pages 65-76.
  17. Joseph L. Pagliari & Kevin A. Scherer & Richard T. Monopoli, 2005. "Public Versus Private Real Estate Equities: A More Refined, Long-Term Comparison," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 147-187, 03.
  18. Richard Barkham & David Geltner, 1995. "Price Discovery in American and British Property Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 21-44.
  19. F.C. Neil Myer & James R. Webb, 1994. "Retail Stocks, Retail REITs, and Retail Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(1), pages 65-84.
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  21. Clayton, Jim & MacKinnon, Greg, 2003. "The Relative Importance of Stock, Bond and Real Estate Factors in Explaining REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 39-60, July.
  22. Jinliang Li & Robert M. Mooradian & Shiawee X. Yang, 2009. "The Information Content of the NCREIF Index," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(1), pages 93-116.
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Cited by:
  1. Roland Füss & Felix Schindler, 2011. "Diversifikationsvorteile verbriefter Immobilienanlagen in einem Mixed‐Asset‐Portfolio," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 170-191, 05.

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