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The Inflation Hedging Characteristics of US and UK Investments: A Multifactor Error Correction Approach

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Author Info

  • Martin Hoesli

    (University of Geneva and University of Aberdeen Business School)

  • Colin Lizieri

    (University of Reading Business School)

  • Bryan MacGregor

    (Universtity of Aberdeen Business School)

Abstract

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks has produced anomalous results, with stocks often appearing to offer a perverse hedge against inflation. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns (from both private and public markets) and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for U.S. and U.K. markets.Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalization stock returns in both markets is carried out. Inflation is divided into expected and unexpected components using a variety of estimation techniques. The analyses are undertaken using the error correction approach. In the long run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly private market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from those of stocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 06-04.

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Length: 54 pages
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Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0604

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Keywords: Investment Returns; Real Estate; Inflation Hedging; Error Correction Model;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Bouchouicha, Ranoua & Ftiti, Zied, 2012. "Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: A dynamic coherence framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1820-1829.
  2. Gwangheon Hong & Bong Lee, 2013. "Does Inflation Illusion Explain the Relation between REITs and Inflation?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 123-151, July.
  3. Fatnassi, Ibrahim & Slim, Chaouachi & Ftiti, Zied & Ben Maatoug, Abderrazek, 2014. "Effects of monetary policy on the REIT returns: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-26.
  4. Shaun K. Roache & Alexander P. Attie, 2009. "Inflation Hedging for Long-Term Investors," IMF Working Papers 09/90, International Monetary Fund.
  5. William Hardin & Xiaoquan Jiang & Zhonghua Wu, 2012. "REIT Stock Prices with Inflation Hedging and Illusion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 262-287, June.
  6. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin, 2014. "Can Linear Predictability Models Time Bull and Bear Real Estate Markets? Out-of-Sample Evidence from REIT Portfolios," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 116-164, July.
  7. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Scognamiglio, Donato & Zhang, Sumei, 2011. "Land leverage and house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 134-144, March.

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