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Spillovers of the Credit Default Swap Market

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  • Mauricio Calani C.

Abstract

Credit Default Swap (CDS) prices have soared on the edge of a potential sovereign default of some European countries. Interestingly, not only countries on the verge of receiving bailouts have seen their CDS prices rise, but also those from which most of the bailout financing would come, such as Germany. If in fact default probabilities of countries like Germany have risen, should we still view them as safe-havens? In particular, to what extent should we see bond yields rise (as bond prices decline) vis-a-vis CDS spreads? This paper tackles this question by estimating the dynamic responses of bond yields to changes in the CDS spreads. The second, more fundamental question is to assess if the apparent contagion from troubled countries to otherwise-healthy economies is in fact so. I address this question using the Diebold - Yilmaz spillover index methodology for CDS data. I conclude that sovereign debt from Germany, Chile and Japan are unaffected by contagion from other economies and have served as safe-haven assets during the current financial distress episode.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 678.

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Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:678

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  1. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2011. "Equity Market Spillovers in the Americas," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 7, pages 199-214 Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yılmaz, 2007. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0705, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  3. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
  4. Rodrigo A. Alfaro & Rodrigo Cifuentes S., 2011. "Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 1, pages 001-010 Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  6. Nicolás Álvarez H. & Luis Opazo R., 2009. "Paridad Cubierta de Tasas de Interés de Largo Plazo en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(2), pages 67-95, August.
  7. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
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