¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para Predecir el PIB Chileno?
AbstractSchwarz. In this paper I evaluate the predictive ability of the Akaike and Schwarz information criteria using autoregressive integrated moving average models, with sectoral data of Chilean GDP. In terms of root mean square error, and after the estimation of more than a million models, the results indicate that —on average— the models based on the Schwarz criterion perform better than those selected with the Akaike, for the four horizons analyzed. Furthermore, the statistical significance of these differences indicates that the superiority in favor of the Schwarz criterion holds mainly at higher horizons.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 658.
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Medel, Carlos A., 2012.
"¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para predecir el PIB chileno?
[Akaike or Schwarz? Which One is a Better Predictor of Chilean GDP?]," MPRA Paper 35950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
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