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Tasas de Crédito Ajustadas por Riesgo e Implicancias para Políticas de Tasa Máxima Convencional

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  • Carlos Madeira
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    Abstract

    This work estimates the impact of different policies of Interest Rate Ceilings on the proportion of families excluded from credit access in Chile. Using the default probabilities estimated by a probit model based on demographic variables and financial debt-load, I simulate the distribution of risk-adjusted interest rates of Chilean households for different shocks to income and employment. The results imply that an interest rate ceiling factor of 0.35 would exclude 11% to 18% of the families from credit access, depending on the severity of the shock. This exclusion is heavily concentrated on the poorest income quintiles.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 654.

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    Date of creation: Jan 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:654

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    1. Jonathan Zinman, 2008. "Restricting consumer credit access: household survey evidence on effects around the Oregon rate cap," Working Papers 08-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Greer, Douglas F, 1975. "Rate Ceilings and Loan Turndowns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(5), pages 1376-83, December.
    3. Abowd, John M & Card, David, 1989. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 411-45, March.
    4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
    5. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September.
    6. Rodrigo Alfaro & Natalia Gallardo & Roberto Stein, 2010. "The Determinants of Household Debt Defa," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 574, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Villegas, Daniel J., 1987. "The impact of usury ceilings on revolving credit," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 285-288.
    8. Villegas, Daniel J, 1982. " An Analysis of the Impact of Interest Rate Ceilings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 941-54, September.
    9. Peterson, Richard L, 1983. " Usury Laws and Consumer Credit: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1299-1304, September.
    10. Rodrigo Alfaro A. & David Pacheco L. & Andrés Sagner T, 2011. "Dinámica de la Tasa de Incumplimiento de Créditos de Consumo en Cuotas," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(2), pages 119-124, August.
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