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Implied Probability Distribution in Financial Options

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  • Luis Ceballos

Abstract

The objective of this work is to learn about the information contained in local market financial options regarding the peso-dollar parity. The goal is to test whether this is a relevant source that should be considered by the financial agents when forming expectations regarding the future path of underlying assets. The main methodologies for estimating the probability distribution function derived from option prices are reviewed. The present article relies on the methodology developed by Malz (1997) which, in contrast with others, makes no assumptions on the underlying asset and requires very few market quotes. The main results of this research are twofold. First, the implicit volatility in options does not perform better than alternative methods, and a significant bias and inefficiency component is found. Second, the interval forecasts derived from the probability distributions show that only the three-month-ahead forecast seems to be optimal in the sense of lack of both forecasting error lag dependence and dependence on volatility, while one- and six-month-ahead forecasts do exhibit these dependencies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 596.

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Date of creation: Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:596

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  1. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
  2. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 1998. "Reading the Smile: The Message Conveyed by Methods which Infer Risk Neutral Densities," CEPR Discussion Papers 2009, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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