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What Drives the Current Account in Commodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand

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  • Juan Pablo Medina
  • Anella Munro
  • Claudio Soto

Abstract

This paper uses an open economy DSGE model with a commodity sector and nominal and real rigidities to ask what factors account for current account developments in two small commodity exporting countries. We estimate the model, using Bayesian techniques, on Chilean and on New Zealand data, and investigate the structural factors that explain the behaviour of the two countries’ current accounts. We find that foreign financial conditions, investment-specific shocks, and foreign demand shocks account for the bulk of the variation of the current accounts of the two countries. In the case of New Zealand, fluctuations in commodity export prices have also been important. Counterfactual experiments indicate that (i) a peso denomination of the Chilean external debt would reduce the impact of external shocks on the exchange rate and domestic variables, and the influence of monetary policy on the current account; and (ii) more or less aggressive monetary policy in New Zealand offers little scope for stabilizing the exchange rate and the current account.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 446.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:446

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Juan Pablo Medina & Anella Munro & Claudio Soto, 2007. "What Drives the Current Account in Commodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 446, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Chris Bloor & Rebecca Craigie & Anella Munro, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of a stable funding requirement," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2012/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "The Chilean Business Cycles Through the Lens of a Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 457, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Camilo E Tovar, 2008. "DSGE models and central banks," BIS Working Papers 258, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Paul Cashin & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 11/195, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Andrew Filardo & Jason George & Mico Loretan & Guonan Ma & Anella Munro & Ilhyock Shim & Philip Wooldridge & James Yetman & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "The international financial crisis: timeline, impact and policy responses in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 21-82 Bank for International Settlements.

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