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Overshootings and Reversals: The Role of Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Ilan Goldfajn
Poonam Gupta

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Abstract

This paper provides evidence on the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange rate in the aftermath of currency crises taking into account the role of a fragile banking system. It analyzes a large set of currency crises that led to real exchange rate undervaluations from a sample of 80 countries in the period 1980 to 1998. First, the paper evaluates whether tight monetary policy increases substantially the probability of reversing the undervaluation through nominal appreciation of the exchange rate rather than through higher inflation. Second, using panel data, the paper estimates the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates. We find that tight monetary policy facilitates the reversal of the real exchange rate through nominal appreciation rather than inflation. In contrast, when the economy is also facing a banking crisis, tight monetary policy may not have the same effect.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 126.

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Date of creation: Nov 2001
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:126

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Paul R. Masson & Allan Drazen, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," IMF Working Papers 94/49, International Monetary Fund.
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  3. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1997. "The determinants of banking crises : evidence from industrial and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1828, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stephen Grenville, 2004. "The IMF and the Indonesian crisis," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 77-94, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Chien-Chung Nieh & Yu-Shan Wang, 2005. "ARDL Approach to the Exchange Rate Overshooting in Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 55-71, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stephen Grenville, 2000. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Crisis," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 43-60, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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