The Dynamic Effects of Currency Union on Trade
Abstract
A currency union’s ability to increase international trade is one of the most debated questions in international macroeconomics. This paper studies the dynamics of these trade effects over time. First, empirical work with data from the European Monetary Union finds that the extensive margin of trade (entry of new firms or goods) responds several years ahead of overall trade volume and actual implementation of the monetary union. This implies a fall at the intensive margin (previously traded goods) in the run-up to EMU. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of trade studies the announcement of a future monetary union as a news shock lowering future trade costs, and finds that the early entry of new firms in anticipation is explainable as a rational forward-looking response under certain conditions. Required elements are sunk costs of exporting and ex-ante heterogeneity among firms. The findings help identify which types of trading frictions are reduced by adopting a currency union. Findings also indicate that a significant fraction of the welfare gains from a monetary union are based upon expectations for the future, so that continued gains depend upon long-term credibility of the union.Download Info
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Paper provided by Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE) in its series CAGE Online Working Paper Series with number 11.Length:
Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cge:warwcg:11
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Related research
Keywords: currency union; extensive margin of trade;Other versions of this item:
- Bergin, Paul R. & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2012. "The dynamic effects of a currency union on trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 191-204.
- Paul Bergin & Ching-Yi Lin, 2010. "The Dynamic Effects of Currency Union on Trade," NBER Working Papers 16259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ching-Yi Lin & Paul Bergin, 2011. "The Dynamic Effects of Currency Union on Trade," 2011 Meeting Papers 291, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Campbell, Douglas L., 2012.
"Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade Using a Dynamic Gravity Framework,"
MPRA Paper
37091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Campbell, Douglas L., 2011. "Estimating the impact of currency unions on trade using a dynamic gravity framework," MPRA Paper 35531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Douglas Campbell, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade Using a Dynamic Gravity Framework," Working Papers 121, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Campbell, Douglas, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade Using a Dynamic Gravity Framework," Working Papers 12-01, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics.
- Florian Mölders, 2012. "On the Path to Trade Liberalization: Political Regimes in International Trade Negotiations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1245, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Mario Larch & Wolfgang Lechthaler, .
"Whom to send to Doha? The Short-sighted Ones!,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
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- Mario Larch & Wolfgang Lechthaler, 2012. "Code and data files for "Whom to send to Doha? The Short-sighted Ones!"," Computer Codes 11-281, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Mario Larch , & Wolfgang Lechthaler, 2011. "Whom to Send to Doha? The Shortsighted Ones!," Kiel Working Papers 1695, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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