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Renewable Resource Shocks and Conflict in India’s Maoist Belt

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  • Devash Kapur, Kishore Gawande, Shanker Satyanath

Abstract

Is there a causal relationship between shocks to renewable natural resources, such as agricultural and forest lands, and the intensity of conflict? In this paper, we conduct a rigorous econometric analysis of a civil conflict that the Indian Prime Minister has called the single biggest internal security challenge ever faced by his country, the so-called Maoist conflict. We focus on over-time within-district variation in the intensity of conflict in the states where this conflict is primarily located. Using a novel data set of killings, we find that adverse renewable resource shocks have a robust, significant association with the intensity of conflict. A one standard deviation decrease in our measure of renewable resources increases killings by 12.5 percent contemporaneously, 9.7 percent after a year, and 42.2 percent after two years. Our instrumental variables strategy allows us to interpret these findings in a causal manner.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Global Development in its series Working Papers with number 302.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:302

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