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Can Global De-Carbonization Inhibit Developing-Country Industrialization?

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  • Aaditya Mattoo
  • Arvind Subramanian
  • Dominique van der Mensbrugghe
  • Jianwu He

Abstract

Most economic analyses of climate change have focused on the aggregate impact on countries of mitigation actions. We depart first in disaggregating the impact by sector, focusing particularly on manufacturing output and exports because of the potential growth consequences. Second, we decompose the impact of an agreement on emissions reductions into three components: the change in the price of carbon due to each country’s emission cuts per se; the further change in this price due to emissions tradability; and the changes due to any international transfers (private and public). Manufacturing output and exports in low carbon intensity countries such as Brazil are not adversely affected. In contrast, in high carbon intensity countries, such as China and India, even a modest agreement depresses manufacturing output by 6-7 percent and manufacturing exports by 9-11 percent. The increase in the carbon price induced by emissions tradability hurts manufacturing output most while the Dutch disease effects of transfers hurt exports most. If the growth costs of these structural changes are judged to be substantial, the current policy consensus, which favors emissions tradability (on efficiency grounds) supplemented with financial transfers (on equity grounds), needs re-consideration.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Global Development in its series Working Papers with number 188.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:188

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Keywords: trade; environment; climate change; emissions trading;

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References

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  1. Stephen Knack, 2001. "Aid Dependence and the Quality of Governance: Cross-Country Empirical Tests," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 310-329, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Anderson, Kym, 2011. "Climate Change and Food Security to 2050: A Global Economy-wide Perspective," 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia 100531, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  2. Pauline Lacour & Jean-Christophe Simon, 2012. "Les avancées du Mécanisme de Développement Propre : une étape décisive vers un développement "décarboné" au Sud ?," Post-Print halshs-00713067, HAL.

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