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The Mistake of 1937: A General Equilibrium Analysis

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Author Info
Gauti B. Eggertsson () (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Benjamin Pugsley () (University of Chicago)

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Abstract

This paper studies a dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and rational expectations in an environment of low interest rates and deflationary pressures. We show that small changes in the public’s beliefs about the future inflation target of the government can lead to large swings in both inflation and output. This effect is much larger at low interest rates than under regular circumstances. This highlights the importance of effective communication policy at zero interest rates. We argue that confusing communications by the US Federal Reserve, the President of the United States, and key administration officials about future price objectives were responsible for the sharp recession in the US in 1937-38, one of the sharpest recessions in US economic history. Poor communication policy is the mistake of 1937. Before committing the mistake of 1937 the US policy makers faced economic conditions that are similar in some respect to those confronted by Japanese policy makers in the first half of 2006.

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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2007/06.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 12 Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cfs:cfswop:wp200706

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Related research
Keywords: Sticky Prices; Central Bank Communication; Stochastic General Equilibrium Model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto, 2004. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz Hypothesis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 169, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2005. "Great expectations and the end of the depression," Staff Reports 234, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Hamilton, James D, 1992. "Was the Deflation during the Great Depression Anticipated? Evidence from the Commodity Futures Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 157-78, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2004. "The great depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis," Working Paper Series 326, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(04), pages 757-784, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Athanasios Orphanides, 2004. "Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Klaus Adam & Roberto M. Billi, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy under commitment with a zero bound on nominal interest rates," Working Paper Series 377, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-1), pages 139-235. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2006. "Was the New Deal contractionary?," Staff Reports 264, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  11. Eggertsson, Gauti B., 2006. "The Deflation Bias and Committing to Being Irresponsible," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 283-321, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Anton Nakov, 2006. "Optimal and Simple Monetary Policy Rules with Zero Floor on the Nominal Interest Rate," Banco de España Working Papers 0637, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Jonathan David Ostry, 2005. "Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan?," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 05/5, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1990. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Working Papers 2966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Andrea Tambalotti & Ernst Schaumburg, 2004. "An Investigation of the Gains from Commitment in Monetary Policy," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 282, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2005. "The Incredible Volcker Disinflation," Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series WP2005-007, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Olivier Jeanne & Lars E. O. Svensson, 2004. "Credible Commitment to Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap: The Role of the Balance Sheet of an Independent Central Bank," IMF Working Papers 04/162, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Policy Options in a Liquidity Trap," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 76-79, May. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Acocella, Nicola & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2008. "When Can Central Banks Anchor Expectations? Policy communication and controllability," CEPR Discussion Papers 7078, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christopher P. Reicher, 2009. "Expectations, Monetary Policy, and Labor Markets: Lessons from the Great Depression," Kiel Working Papers 1543, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alan J. Auerbach & William G. Gale, 2009. "Activist Fiscal Policy to Stabilize Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 15407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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