Michael Bordo () (Rutgers and Cambridge University) Christopher Erceg () (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) Andrew Levin () (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) Ryan Michaels () (University of Michigan)
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In this paper, we examine three famous episodes of deliberate deflation (or disinflation) in U.S. history, including episodes following the Civil War, World War I, and the Volcker disinflation of the early 1980s. These episodes were associated with widely divergent effects on the real economy, which we attribute both to differences in the policy actions undertaken, and to the transparency and credibility of the monetary authorities. We attempt to account for the salient features of each episode within the context of a stylized DSGE model. Our model simulations indicate how a more predictable policy of gradual deflation could have helped avoid the sharp post-WWI depression. But our analysis also suggests that the strong argument for gradualism under a transparent monetary regime becomes less persuasive if the monetary authority lacks credibility; in this case, an aggressive policy stance (as under Volcker) can play a useful signalling role by making a policy shift more apparent to private agents.
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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number
2007/05.
Length: 49 pages Date of creation: 09 Feb 2007 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:cfs:cfswop:wp200705
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Thomas J. Sargent, 1982.
"The Ends of Four Big Inflations,"
NBER Chapters,
in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Other versions:
Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2004.
"Optimal Inflation-Targeting Rules,"
NBER Chapters,
in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 93-172
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!]
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