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Price Stability, Inflation Convergence and Diversity in EMU: Does One Size Fit All?

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Author Info
Axel A. Weber (Deutsche Bundesbank)
Günter W. Beck () (University of Frankfurt and CFS)

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Abstract

Using a unique data set of regional inflation rates we are examining the extent and dynamics of inflation dispersion in major EMU countries before and after the introduction of the euro. For both periods, we find strong evidence in favor of mean reversion (ß-convergence) in inflation rates. However, half-lives to convergence are considerable and seem to have increased after 1999. The results indicate that the convergence process is nonlinear in the sense that its speed becomes smaller the further convergence has proceeded. An examination of the dynamics of overall inflation dispersion (s-convergence) shows that there has been a decline in dispersion in the first half of the 1990s. For the second half of the 1990s, no further decline can be observed. At the end of the sample period, dispersion has even increased. The existence of large persistence in European inflation rates is confirmed when distribution dynamics methodology is applied. At the end of the paper we present evidence for the sustainability of the ECB’s inflation target of an EMU-wide average inflation rate of less than but close to 2%.

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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2005/30.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cfs:cfswop:wp200530

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Related research
Keywords: Convergence Deflation ECB Monetary Policy EMU Regional Diversity

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Günter W. Beck & Axel A. Weber, 2005. "Inflation Rate Dispersion and Convergence in Monetary and Economic Unions: Lessons for the ECB," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/31, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Günter W. Beck & Kirstin Hubrich & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," Working Paper Series 681, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alina Spiru, 2007. "Inflation convergence in the new EU member states," Working Papers 005221, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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