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Discretionary Monetary Policy and the Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

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Author Info
Klaus Adam () (European Central Bank)
Roberto Billi () (Center for Financial Studies)

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Abstract

Ignoring the existence of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates one considerably understates the value of monetary commitment in New Keynesian models. A stochastic forward-looking model with lower bound, calibrated to the U.S. economy, suggests that low values for the natural rate of interest lead to sizeable output losses and deflation under discretionary monetary policy. The fall in output and deflation are much larger than in the case with policy commitment and do not show up at all if the model abstracts from the existence of the lower bound. The welfare losses of discretionary policy increase even further when inflation is partly determined by lagged inflation in the Phillips curve. These results emerge because private sector expectations and the discretionary policy response to these expectations reinforce each other and cause the lower bound to be reached much earlier than under commitment.

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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2005/16.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 16 Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cfs:cfswop:wp200516

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Related research
Keywords: Nonlinear Optimal Policy Occasionally Binding Constraint Sequential Policy Markov Perfect Equilibrium Liquidity Trap

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Olivier Jeanne & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2004. "Credible Commitment to Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap: The Role of the Balance Sheet of an Independent Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 10679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000384, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 137-206. [Downloadable!]
  6. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2004. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Alan J. Auerbach & Maurice Obstfeld, 2003. "The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 9814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2004. "Monetary discretion, pricing complementarity, and dynamic multiple equilibria," Working Paper 04-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Guenter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2003. "The Zero-Interest-Rate and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/09, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  12. Stefania Albanesi & V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2003. "Expectation Traps and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 715-741, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Roberto M. Billi & Klaus Adam, 2004. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 67, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Jung, Taehun & Teranishi, Yuki & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy at the Zero-Interest-Rate Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 813-35, October.
  15. Roberto M. Billi, 2005. "The Optimal Inflation Buffer with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 25, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Wolman, Alexander L, 2005. "Real Implications of the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 273-96, April.
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  17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Malik Shukayev & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2008. "Adopting Price-Level Targeting under Imperfect Credibility," Working Papers 08-3, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2007. "The Credibility Problem Revisited: Thirty Years on from Kydland and Prescott," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 1807, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael S. Hanson & Pavel Kapinos, 2006. "Targeting Rules with Intrinsic Persistence and Endogenous Policy Inertia," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-019, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Paul Levine & Peter McAdam & Joseph Pearlman, 2007. "Quantifying and sustaining welfare gains from monetary commitment," Working Paper Series 709, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Paul Levine & Peter McAdam & Joseph Pearlman & Richard Pierse, 2008. "Risk Management in Action. Robust monetary policy rules under structured uncertainty," Working Paper Series 870, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Pavasuthipaisit, Robert, 2007. "Optimal exchange rate policy in a low interest rate environment," MPRA Paper 3596, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Guido Ascari & Nicola Branzoli, 2007. "Optimal simple rules and the lower bound on the nominal interest rate in the Christiano–Eichenbaum–Evans model of the US business cycle," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 117-131, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2008. "Robust monetary rules under unstructured and structured model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 899, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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