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Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Francis X. Diebold () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104)
Monika Piazzesi () (Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago IL 60637)
Glenn D. Rudebusch () (Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 101 Market Street, San Francisco CA 94105)
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From a macroeconomic perspective, the short-term interest rate is a policy instrument under the direct control of the central bank. From a finance perspective, long rates are risk-adjusted averages of expected future short rates. Thus, as illustrated by much recent research, a joint macro-finance modeling strategy will provide the most comprehensive understanding of the term structure of interest rates. We discuss various questions that arise in this research, and we also present a new examination of the relationship between two prominent dynamic, latent factor models in this literature: the Nelson-Siegel and affine no-arbitrage term structure models.
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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number
2005/03.
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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 03 Jan 2005Date of revision:
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Keywords: Term structure yield curve Nelson-Siegel model affine equilibrium model Other versions of this item:
Article Paper Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005.
"Modeling bond yields in finance and macroeconomics ,"
Working Paper Series
2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!] Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005.
"Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics ,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
05-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
[Downloadable!] Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn Rudebusch, 2005.
"Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics ,"
NBER Working Papers
11089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Find related papers by JEL classification: G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports :
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004.
"A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy ,"
2004 Meeting Papers
104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2003.
"A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy ,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
2003-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!] Glenn Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004.
"A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy ,"
Proceedings ,
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[Downloadable!] GlennD. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008.
"A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy ,"
Economic Journal ,
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005.
"No-arbitrage Taylor rules ,"
Proceedings ,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004.
"The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach ,"
NBER Working Papers
10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003.
"Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields ,"
NBER Working Papers
10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2004.
"Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields ,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2004/09, Center for Financial Studies.
[Downloadable!] Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002.
"Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields ,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
[Downloadable!] Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006.
"Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Monika Piazzesi, 2005.
"Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987.
"Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves ,"
Journal of Business ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001.
"A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables ,"
NBER Working Papers
8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007.
"The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models ,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
07-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwatz, .
"Adaptive Forecasting of the EURIBOR Swap Term Structure ,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2008-017, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
[Downloadable!]
Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008.
"An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model ,"
Working Paper Series
2008-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!]
René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005.
"The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach ,"
Working Papers
05-36, Bank of Canada.
[Downloadable!]
Kenneth W. Clements & Renee Fry, 2006.
"Commodity Currencies And Currency Commodities ,"
CAMA Working Papers
2006-19, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Balázs Romhányi, 2005.
"A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates ,"
Macroeconomics
0503001, EconWPA.
[Downloadable!]
Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006.
"Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium ,"
Working Paper Series
2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005.
"International capital flows and U.S. interest rates ,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
840, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
[Downloadable!]
Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2007.
"Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model ,"
Working Paper Series
2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!]
Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005.
"International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates ,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
iiisdp103, IIIS.
[Downloadable!]
Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2006.
"International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates ,"
NBER Working Papers
12560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2005.
"Equilibrium Correlation of Asset Price and Return ,"
Discussion Papers
00017, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2005.
"Equilibrium Correlation of Asset Price and Return ,"
Departmental Working Papers
_175, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Charles Leung, 2007.
"Equilibrium Correlations of Asset Price and Return ,"
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics ,
Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 233-256, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2007.
"Forecasts of U.S. short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approach ,"
Working Papers
2005-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: J.Marcelo Ochoa, 2006.
"An interpretation of an affine term structure model of Chile ,"
Estudios de Economia ,
University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 155-184, December.
[Downloadable!]
Juan Marcelo, Ochoa, 2006.
"An Interpretation of An Affine Term Structure Model for Chile ,"
MPRA Paper
1072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
[Downloadable!]
Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006.
"The bond yield "conundrum" from a macro-finance perspective ,"
Working Paper Series
2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Francesco Audrino & Fabio Trojani, 2007.
"Accurate Short-Term Yield Curve Forecasting using Functional Gradient Descent ,"
University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007
2007-24, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
[Downloadable!]
Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2006.
"Canonical term-structure models with observable factors and the dynamics of bond risk premiums ,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
580, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department.
[Downloadable!]
David Jamieson Bolder, 2006.
"Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioner's Perspective ,"
Working Papers
06-48, Bank of Canada.
[Downloadable!]
Marco S. Matsumura, 2007.
"Impact Of Macro Shocks On Sovereign Default Probabilities ,"
Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting]
060, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
[Downloadable!]
Marcelo Ochoa, 2006.
"Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile ,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
380, Central Bank of Chile.
[Downloadable!]
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