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Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics

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Author Info
Francis X. Diebold () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104)
Monika Piazzesi () (Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago IL 60637)
Glenn D. Rudebusch () (Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 101 Market Street, San Francisco CA 94105)

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Abstract

From a macroeconomic perspective, the short-term interest rate is a policy instrument under the direct control of the central bank. From a finance perspective, long rates are risk-adjusted averages of expected future short rates. Thus, as illustrated by much recent research, a joint macro-finance modeling strategy will provide the most comprehensive understanding of the term structure of interest rates. We discuss various questions that arise in this research, and we also present a new examination of the relationship between two prominent dynamic, latent factor models in this literature: the Nelson-Siegel and affine no-arbitrage term structure models.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2005/03.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 03 Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cfs:cfswop:wp200503

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Related research
Keywords: Term structure yield curve Nelson-Siegel model affine equilibrium model

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
  6. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwatz, . "Adaptive Forecasting of the EURIBOR Swap Term Structure," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-017, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model," Working Paper Series 2008-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  4. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005. "The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Working Papers 05-36, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kenneth W. Clements & Renee Fry, 2006. "Commodity Currencies And Currency Commodities," CAMA Working Papers 2006-19, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International capital flows and U.S. interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 840, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  10. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp103, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  11. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2006. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 12560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2005. "Equilibrium Correlation of Asset Price and Return," Discussion Papers 00017, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2007. "Forecasts of U.S. short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approach," Working Papers 2005-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. J.Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "An interpretation of an affine term structure model of Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 155-184, December. [Downloadable!]
  15. Juan Marcelo, Ochoa, 2006. "An Interpretation of An Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," MPRA Paper 1072, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  16. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The bond yield "conundrum" from a macro-finance perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Francesco Audrino & Fabio Trojani, 2007. "Accurate Short-Term Yield Curve Forecasting using Functional Gradient Descent," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-24, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  18. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2006. "Canonical term-structure models with observable factors and the dynamics of bond risk premiums," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 580, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  19. David Jamieson Bolder, 2006. "Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioner's Perspective," Working Papers 06-48, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  20. Marco S. Matsumura, 2007. "Impact Of Macro Shocks On Sovereign Default Probabilities," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 060, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  21. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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