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Are Stationary Hyperinflation Paths Learnable?

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Author Info
Klaus Adam (CEPR, London, University of Frankfurt)
George W. Evans (University of Oregon, United States)
Seppo Honkapohja (Cambridge University, United Kingdom)

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Abstract

Earlier studies of the seigniorage inflation model have found that the high-inflation steady state is not stable under adaptive learning. We reconsider this issue and analyze the full set of solutions for the linearized model. Our main focus is on stationary hyperinflationary paths near the high-inflation steady state. The hyperinflationary paths are stable under learning if agents can utilize contemporaneous data. However, in an economy populated by a mixture of agents, some of whom only have access to lagged data, stable inflationary paths emerge only if the proportion of agents with access to contemporaneous data is sufficiently high.

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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2004/15.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 15 Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cfs:cfswop:wp200415

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Related research
Keywords: Indeterminacy; inflation; stability of equilibria; seigniorage;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fischer, Stanley, 1984. "The economy of Israel," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 7-52, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 1996. "Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with Heterogeneous Learning Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 1310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Klaus Adam, 2003. "Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 887-907, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bruno, Michael, 1989. "Econometrics and the Design of Economic Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 275-306, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Duffy John, 1994. "On Learning and the Nonuniqueness of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Fiat Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 541-553, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1995. "Genetic algorithms and inflationary economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 219-243, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Stanley Fischer, 1984. "The Economy of Israel," NBER Working Papers 1190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1073-107, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Sargent, Thomas J., 1991. "Equilibrium with signal extraction from endogenous variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 245-273, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Guse, E., 2005. "Learning in a Misspecified Multivariate Self-referential Linear Stochastic Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0548, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Bennett T. McCallum, 2006. "E-Stability vis-a-vis Determinacy Results for a Broad Class of Linear Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 12441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Central bank transparency under model uncertainty," Staff Reports 199, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Óscar J. Arce, 2005. "Reflections on fiscalist divergent price-paths," Banco de España Working Papers 0533, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Lock-in of extrapolative expectations in an asset pricing model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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