We show diverse beliefs is an important propagation mechanism of fluctuations, money non neutrality and efficacy of monetary policy. Since expectations affect demand, our theory shows economic fluctuations are mostly driven by varying demand not supply shocks. Using a competitive model with flexible prices in which agents hold Rational Belief (see Kurz (1994)) we show that (i) our economy replicates well the empirical record of fluctuations in the U.S. (ii) Under monetary rules without discretion, monetary policy has a strong stabilization effect and an aggressive anti-inflationary policy can reduce inflation volatility to zero. (iii) The statistical Phillips Curve changes substantially with policy instruments and activist policy rules render it vertical. (iv) Although prices are flexible, money shocks result in less than proportional changes in inflation hence the aggregate price level appears “sticky” with respect to money shocks. (v) Discretion in monetary policy adds a random element to policy and increases volatility. The impact of discretion on the efficacy of policy depends upon the structure of market beliefs about future discretionary decisions. We study two rationalizable beliefs. In one case, market beliefs weaken the effect of policy and in the second, beliefs bolster policy outcomes and discretion could be a desirable attribute of the policy rule. Since the central bank does not know any more than the private sector, real social gain from discretion arise only in extraordinary cases. Hence, the weight of the argument leads us to conclude that bank’s policy should be transparent and abandon discretion except for rare and unusual circumstances. (vi) An implication of our model suggests the current effective policy is only mildly activist and aims mostly to target inflation.
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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number
2003/42.
Length: 55 pages Date of creation: 11 Feb 2003 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:cfs:cfswop:wp200342
Note: An earlier version was presented at the research conference ”Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy ” August 2003 sponsored by the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (JEDC) and the Center for Financial Studies (CFS). Contact details of provider: Postal: House of Finance, Gr�neburgplatz 1, HPF H5, D-60323 Frankfurt am Main Phone: +49 (0)69 798-30050 Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077 Email: Web page: http://www.ifk-cfs.de/ More information through EDIRC
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
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Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1995.
"Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale,"
NBER Chapters,
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 67-124
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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