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Do Credit Rating Agencies Add to the Dynamics of Emerging Market Crises?

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Author Info
Roman Kraeussl () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

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Abstract

The experience in the period during and after the Asian crisis of 1997-98 has provoked an extensive debate about the credit rating agencies’ evaluation of sovereign risk in emerging markets lending. This study analyzes the role of credit rating agencies in international financial markets, particularly whether sovereign credit ratings have an impact on the financial stability in emerging market economies. The event study and panel regression results indicate that credit rating agencies have substantial influence on the size and volatility of emerging markets lending. The empirical results are significantly stronger in the case of government’s downgrades and negative imminent sovereign credit rating actions such as credit watches and rating outlooks than positive adjustments by the credit rating agencies while by the market participants’ anticipated sovereign credit rating changes have a smaller impact on financial markets in emerging economies.

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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2003/18.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 18 Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cfs:cfswop:wp200318

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Related research
Keywords: Sovereign Risk; Credit Ratings; Financial Crises;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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  6. Roman Kraussl, 2000. "Sovereign Credit Ratings And Their Impact On Recent Financial Crises," Departmental Working Papers 135, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
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  17. de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "Contagion, Globalization, and the Volatility of Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 15-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roman Kraeussl, 2003. "A Critique on the Proposed Use of External Sovereign Credit Ratings in Basel II," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/23, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Roman Kraeussl, 2003. "Do Changes in Sovereign Credit Ratings Contribute to Financial Contagion in Emerging Market Crises?," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/22, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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