This file is part of IDEAS , which uses RePEc data
[ Papers |
Articles |
Software |
Books |
Chapters |
Authors |
Institutions |
JEL Classification |
NEP reports |
Search |
New papers by email |
Author registration |
Rankings |
Volunteers |
FAQ |
Blog |
Help! ]
Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Stefan Reitz () (University of Giessen )
Frank Westerhoff () (University of Osnabrueck )
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
We develop a behavioral exchange rate model with chartists and fundamentalists to study cyclical behavior in foreign exchange markets. Within our model, the market impact of fundamentalists depends on the strength of their belief in fundamental analysis. Estimation of a STAR GARCH model shows that the more the exchange rate deviates from its fundamental value, the more fundamentalists leave the market. In contrast to previous findings, our paper indicates that due to the nonlinear presence of fundamentalists, market stability decreases with increasing misalignments. A stabilization policy such as central bank interventions may help to deflate bubbles.
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
file . Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number
2003/10.
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML ,
plain text ,
BibTeX ,
RIS (EndNote),
ReDIF
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jan 2003Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfs:cfswop:wp200310Contact details of provider: Postal: Taunusanlage 6, D-60329 Frankfurt am Main Phone: ++49 (0) 69 242941-0 Fax: ++49 (0) 69 24294177 Email: Web page: http://www.ifk-cfs.de/ More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Birgit Pässler).
Keywords: nonlinearities technical and fundamental trading STAR GARCH Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports :
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model ,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control ,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990.
"Bulls, bears and market sheep ,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization ,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Lux, T. and M. Marchesi, .
"Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents ,"
Discussion Paper Serie B
437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999.
"Modeling non-linearities in real effective exchange rates ,"
Journal of International Money and Finance ,
Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-45, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cars H. Hommes, 2001.
"Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems ,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
01-014/1, Tinbergen Institute.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: P. Lequeux, E. Acar, 1998.
"A dynamic index for managed currencies funds using CME currency contracts ,"
European Journal of Finance ,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 311-330, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001.
"Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates ,"
Working Paper Series
088, European Central Bank.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001.
"Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates? ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001.
"Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates? ,"
Working Papers
464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
[Downloadable!] Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001.
"Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates? ,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
01-031/4, Tinbergen Institute.
[Downloadable!] Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003.
"Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates? ,"
Journal of International Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Nam, Kiseok & Pyun, Chong Soo & Avard, Stephen L., 2001.
"Asymmetric reverting behavior of short-horizon stock returns: An evidence of stock market overreaction ,"
Journal of Banking & Finance ,
Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 807-824, April.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Nam, Kiseok & Pyun, Chong Soo & Arize, Augustine C., 2002.
"Asymmetric mean-reversion and contrarian profits: ANST-GARCH approach ,"
Journal of Empirical Finance ,
Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 563-588, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992.
"Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000.
"Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals ,"
Journal of International Money and Finance ,
Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992.
"The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market ,"
Journal of International Money and Finance ,
Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1986.
"Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists ,"
The Economic Record ,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 24-38, Supplemen.
Other versions: Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001.
"Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles ,"
International Economic Review ,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
Other versions: Chortareas, Georgios E. & Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol, 2002.
"Nonlinear mean reversion in real exchange rates ,"
Economics Letters ,
Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 411-417, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002.
"The price dynamics of common trading strategies ,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization ,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Peter Boswijk & Cars H. Hommes & Sebastiano Manzan, 2005.
"Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices ,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
05-052/1, Tinbergen Institute.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Boswijk, H.P. & Hommes C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005.
"Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices ,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
05-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
[Downloadable!] Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007.
"Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices ,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control ,
Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Gunduz Caginalp & Vladimira Ilieva, 2006.
"The dynamics of trader motivations in asset bubbles ,"
Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena
008, University of Siena.
[Downloadable!]
Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2006.
"The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: a nonlinear microstructural analysis ,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2006,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Frank Westerhoff & Martin Hohnisch, 2007.
"A note on interactions-driven business cycles ,"
Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination ,
Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 85-91, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Stefan Reitz & Frank Westerhoff, 2004.
"Target Zone Interventions and Coordination of Expectations ,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2004
11, Society for Computational Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Christian Bauer & Paul De Grauwe & Stefan Reitz, 2007.
"Exchange Rates Dynamics in a Target Zone – A Heterogeneous Expectations Approach ,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Stefan Reitz & M.P Taylor, 2006.
"The Coordination Channel of Foreign Exchange Intervention ,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2006
16, Society for Computational Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Access and
download statistics Did you know? Springer Verlag was the first commercial publisher to be listed on RePEc .
This page was last updated on 2008-9-25.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics , College of Liberal Arts and Sciences , University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics .