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The Zero-Interest-Rate and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan

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Author Info
Guenter Coenen () (European Central Bank)
Volker Wieland () (Goethe University Frankfurt and CFS)

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Abstract

In this paper we study the role of the exchange rate in conducting monetary policy in an economy with near-zero nominal interest rates as experienced in Japan since the mid-1990s. Our analysis is based on an estimated model of Japan, the United States and the euro area with rational expectations and nominal rigidities. First, we provide a quantitative analysis of the impact of the zero bound on the effectiveness of interest rate policy in Japan in terms of stabilizing output and inflation. Then we evaluate three concrete proposals that focus on depreciation of the currency as a way to ameliorate the effect of the zero bound and evade a potential liquidity trap. Finally, we investigate the international consequences of these proposals.

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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2003/09.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 09 Jan 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfs:cfswop:wp200309

Note: Prepared for the "Conference on the tenth anniversary of the Taylor rule" in the Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, November 22-23, 2002. We are grateful for helpful comments by Ignazio Angeloni, Chris Erceg, Chris Gust, Bennett McCallum, Lars Svensson, Carl Walsh as well as seminar participants at the Carnegie-Rochester conference, the Bank of Canada, the London School of Economics and the European Central Bank. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the European Central Bank. Volker Wieland served as a consultant in the Directorate General Research at the European Central Bank while preparing this paper. Any errors are of course the sole responsibility of the authors.
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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy rules zero interest rate bound liquidity trap rational expectations nominal rigidities exchange rates monetary transmission.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Peter McAdam, 2003. "US, Japan and the euro area - comparing business-cycle features," Working Paper Series 283, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Athanasios Orphanides, 2004. "Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Günter Coenen, 2003. "Zero lower bound - is it a problem with the euro area?," Working Paper Series 269, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Roberto Billi, 2005. "The Optimal Inflation Buffer with a Zero Bound," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/17, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bartosz Mackowiak, 2005. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Klaus Adam & Roberto Billi, 2005. "Discretionary Monetary Policy and the Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/16, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Bennett T. McCallum, 2005. "A Monetary Policy Rule for Automatic Prevention of a Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 11056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Junning Cai, 2004. "Liquidity Trap Prevention and Escape: A Simple Proposition," Macroeconomics 0402033, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2004. "Exchange-rate policy and the zero bound on nominal interest rates," Working Paper Series 350, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2004. "Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/14, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," NBER Working Papers 10195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Roberto M. Billi, 2005. "The Optimal Inflation Buffer with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 25, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Keynote Speech by Bennett T. McCallum, 2006. "Misconceptions Regarding the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 13-26, December. [Downloadable!]
  15. Mehrotra, Aaron, 2005. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era - Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Aaron MEHROTRA, 2004. "Could Japan Target the Price Level or Inflation - What Happens to Monetary Policy Effectiveness during Disinflation?," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/02, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  17. Matt Klaeffling & Victor Lopez Perez, 2003. "Inflation targets and the liquidity trap," Working Paper Series 272, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2006. "Monetary Policy In Illiquid Markets: Options For A Small Open Economy," CAMA Working Papers 2006-17, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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