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Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Guenter Coenen () (European Central Bank)
Andrew Levin () (Federal Reserve Board, Washington)
Volker Wieland () (Goehte University Frankfurt and CFS)

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Abstract

In this study, we perform a quantitative assessment of the role of money as an indicator variable for monetary policy in the euro area. We document the magnitude of revisions to euro area-wide data on output, prices, and money, and find that monetary aggregates have a potentially significant role in providing information about current real output. We then proceed to analyze the information content of money in a forward-looking model in which monetary policy is optimally determined subject to incomplete information about the true state of the economy. We show that monetary aggregates may have substantial information content in an environment with high variability of output measurement errors, low variability of money demand shocks, and a strong contemporaneous linkage between money demand and real output. As a practical matter, however, we conclude that money has fairly limited information content as an indicator of contemporaneous aggregate demand in the euro area.

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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2003/07.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 07 Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cfs:cfswop:wp200307

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Related research
Keywords: euro area Kalman filter macroeconomic modelling measurement error monetary policy rules rational expectations

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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