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Prediction of Financial Downside-Risk with Heavy-Tailed Conditional Distributions

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Author Info
Stefan Mittnik () (University of Kiel, University of Munich and CFS)
Marc S. Paolella () (University of Kiel and University of Munich)
Abstract

The use of GARCH models with stable Paretian innovations in financial modeling has been recently suggested in the literature. This class of processes is attractive because it allows for conditional skewness and leptokurtosis of financial returns without ruling out normality. This contribution illustrates their usefulness in predicting the downside risk of financial assets in the context of modeling foreign exchange-rates and demonstrates their superiority over use of normal or Student’s t GARCH models.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2003/04.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 04 Jan 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfs:cfswop:wp200304

Note: The research of Stefan Mittnik was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.
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Related research
Keywords: Risk Management; Value at Risk; Density Forecasting; Predictive Likelihood;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S. & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2002. "Stationarity of stable power-GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 97-107, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. McCulloch, J. Huston, 1985. "Interest-risk sensitive deposit insurance premia : Stable ACH estimates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 137-156, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Liu, Shi-Miin & Brorsen, B Wade, 1995. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Garch-Stable Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 273-85, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S. & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2000. "Diagnosing and treating the fat tails in financial returns data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 389-416, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nelson, Daniel B & Cao, Charles Q, 1992. "Inequality Constraints in the Univariate GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 229-35, April.
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