The Use of Qualitative Business TendencySurveys for Forecasting Business Investmentin Germany
AbstractInvestment in equipment and machinery is a very important component of GDP. In this paper we examine whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for a timely assessment of current investment behavior. In addition we investigate whether the survey results are helpful for forecastinginvestment growth in the short run. The first question is addressed with thehelp of spectral analysis. To study the forecast ability we estimate linearautoregressive and additive autoregressive models. The forecasting performance is assessed through filtered residuals. The analyses show that the business survey is indeed a useful tool for assessing investment in equipment and machinery.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Papers No.13.
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Business tendency surveys; forecasting; investment; linear autoregression; additive autoregression;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
- C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
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