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The Use of Qualitative Business TendencySurveys for Forecasting Business Investmentin Germany

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  • Klaus Abberger

Abstract

Investment in equipment and machinery is a very important component of GDP. In this paper we examine whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for a timely assessment of current investment behavior. In addition we investigate whether the survey results are helpful for forecastinginvestment growth in the short run. The first question is addressed with thehelp of spectral analysis. To study the forecast ability we estimate linearautoregressive and additive autoregressive models. The forecasting performance is assessed through filtered residuals. The analyses show that the business survey is indeed a useful tool for assessing investment in equipment and machinery.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-Ifo_Working_Papers/wp-ifo-2005-2010/IfoWorkingPaper-13.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Papers No.13.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_no.13

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Related research

Keywords: Business tendency surveys; forecasting; investment; linear autoregression; additive autoregression;

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References

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  1. Daniel Pena & Ismael Sanchez, 2005. "Multifold Predictive Validation in ARMAX Time Series Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 135-146, March.
  2. Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995. "New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-26, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rossi, José Luiz J. & Laban, Sílvio A. Neto & Claro, Danny Pimentel & Bolzani, Luciana Corrêa, 2009. "Índice de Confiança do Empresário de Pequenos e Médios Negócios no Brasil (IC-PMN): Desenvolvimento e Consolidação," Insper Working Papers, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa wpe_191, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  2. Sascha O. Becker & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2007. "Micro Data at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research – The “Ifo Business Survey”, Usage and Access," Ifo Working Paper Series, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich Ifo Working Paper No. 47, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  3. Sascha O. Becker & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "European Data Watch: Micro Data at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research – The “Ifo Business Survey”, Usage and Access," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(2), pages 307-319.
  4. Claro, Danny P & Júnior, José L. R. & Laban Neto, Sílvio A. & Lucci, Cíntia R. & Bolzani, Luciana C. & Carvalho, Marina D. de, 2009. "Índice de Confiança do Empresário de Pequenos e Médios Negócios no Brasil (IC-PMN): Metodologia e Resultados Preliminares," Insper Working Papers, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa wpe_158, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  5. Klaus Abberger & Sascha O. Becker & Barbara Hofmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2007. "Mikrodaten im ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung: Bestand, Verwendung, Zugang," Ifo Working Paper Series, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich Ifo Working Paper No. 44, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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