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Monte-Carlo Simulations Revised: A Reply to Arqus

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Author Info
Sabrina Dorn ()
Abstract

This contribution revises Monte-Carlo based simulation techniques as used in BusinessTaxation and Accounting literature, most prominently proposed by fellows ofTherefore, we focus on a methodically orientated discussion. Our results suggestthe standard approach leads to biased estimates of expected discounted tax paymentsassuming cash flow uncertainty and incomplete loss-offset regulations. We built upcritique by giving an analytical expression for expected discounted tax paymentsformulating the structure of probability weighted tax states in the future conditionalcash flows above or be-low zero. Consequently, this enables us to evaluate the resultsobtained from the standard Monte-Carlo approach within a numerical analysis.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/IfoWorkingPaper-73.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Paper No. 73.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_73

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Related research
Keywords: Arqus; cash flow uncertainty; limited loss-offset; Monte-Carlo simulations;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Investment Policy
H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
K34 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Tax Law

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-28.


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