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Dynamic Scoring of Tax Reforms in the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Salvador Barrios
  • Mathias Dolls
  • Anamaria Mafei
  • Andreas Peichl
  • Sara Riscado
  • Janos Varga
  • Christian Wittneben

Abstract

This paper presents the first dynamic scoring exercise linking a microsimulation and a dynamic general equilibrium model for Europe. We illustrate our novel methodology by analysing hypothetical reforms of the social insurance contributions system in Belgium. Our approach takes into account the feedback effects resulting from adjustments and behavioural responses in the labour market and the economy-wide reaction to tax policy changes, essential for a comprehensive evaluation of the reforms. We find that the self-financing effect of a reduction in employers’ social insurance contribution is substantially larger than that of a comparable reduction in employees’ social insurance contributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Salvador Barrios & Mathias Dolls & Anamaria Mafei & Andreas Peichl & Sara Riscado & Janos Varga & Christian Wittneben, 2018. "Dynamic Scoring of Tax Reforms in the European Union," EconPol Working Paper 7, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:econwp:_7
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    7. Michal Horvath & Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2018. "Evaluating the Aggregate Effects of Tax and Benefit Reforms," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2018, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    8. Andreas Peichl, 2016. "Linking Microsimulation and CGE models," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(1), pages 167-174.
    9. Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Carla Krolage & Florian Neumeier & Daniel Stöhlker, 2019. "Incentivising structural reforms in Europe?," EconPol Policy Brief 14, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. D'ANDRIA Diego & DEBACKER Jason & EVANS Richard W. & PYCROFT Jonathan & ZACHLOD-JELEC Magdalena, 2021. "Taxing income or consumption: macroeconomic and distributional effects for Italy," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2021-13, Joint Research Centre.
    11. Salvador Barrios & Viginta Ivaškaitė-Tamošiūnė & Anamaria Maftei & Edlira Narazani & Janos Varga, 2020. "Progressive Tax Reforms in Flat Tax Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 83-107, March.
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    13. Benczúr, Péter & Kátay, Gábor & Kiss, Áron, 2018. "Assessing the economic and social impact of tax and benefit reforms: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach applied to Hungary," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 441-457.
    14. Caterina Astarita & Salvador Barrios & Francesca D'Auria & Anamaria Maftei & Philipp Mohl & Matteo Salto & Marie-Luise Schmitz & Alberto Tumino & Edouard Turkisch, 2018. "Impact of fiscal policy on income distribution," Report on Public Finances in EMU, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission, pages 71-131, January.
    15. Salvador Barrios, 2020. "Taxation and growth: Why does it matter and how can it be analysed?," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 42(4), pages 366-384, December.
    16. Ali Bayar & Barbara Bratta & Silvia Carta & Paolo Di Caro & Marco Manzo & Carlo Orecchia, 2021. "Assessing the effects of VAT policies with an integrated CGE-microsimulation approach: evidence on Italy," Working Papers wp2021-14, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Department of Finance.
    17. Vandyck, Toon & Weitzel, Matthias & Wojtowicz, Krzysztof & Rey Los Santos, Luis & Maftei, Anamaria & Riscado, Sara, 2021. "Climate policy design, competitiveness and income distribution: A macro-micro assessment for 11 EU countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    18. Roeger, Werner & Varga, Janos & Veld, Jan in 't & Vogel, Lukas, 2021. "The distributional impact of labour market reforms: A model-based assessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    19. Isabelle Justo & Julien Hartley & Fidel Picos & Sara Riscado, 2019. "Mortgage Tax Reforms in Sweden: Scope for a Double Dividend?," European Economy - Economic Briefs 049, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    20. Diego d'Andria & Jason DeBacker & Richard Evans & Jonathan Pycroft & Magdalena Zachlod-Jelec, 2019. "Micro-founded tax policy effects in a heterogenenous-agent macro-model," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2019-01, Joint Research Centre.
    21. Okan Erol, Kazim, 2022. "TURKMOD: developing a tax and benefit microsimulation model for Turkey," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA1/22, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
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