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The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Selected European Countries: A Scenario Calculation

Author

Listed:
  • Florian Dorn
  • Clemens Fuest
  • Marcell Göttert
  • Carla Krolage
  • Stefan Lautenbacher
  • Robert Lehmann
  • Sebastian Link
  • Sascha Möhrle
  • Andreas Peichl
  • Magnus Reif
  • Stefan Sauer
  • Marc Stöckli
  • Klaus Wohlrabe
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

This paper presents scenarios of the shutdown costs in terms of lost value added for Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and UK. The shutdown phase will lead to considerable production losses and large declines in GDP this year. Lasting longer than a month, the losses within the EU quickly reach dimensions well beyond the growth slump of previous recessions or natural disasters. Shutdown costs justify almost every conceivable investment in health policy measures which allow to combine a resumption of production with further fight against the epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Sascha Möhrle & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Stefan Sauer & Marc Stöckli & Kl, 2020. "The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Selected European Countries: A Scenario Calculation," EconPol Policy Brief 25, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:econpb:_25
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    Cited by:

    1. Vereno Brugiatelli, 2021. "For An Ecological Awareness of Responsible Living," European Journal of Marketing and Economics Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 4, July -Dec.
    2. Olga Cantó & Francesco Figari & Carlo V. Fiorio & Sarah Kuypers & Sarah Marchal & Marina Romaguera‐de‐la‐Cruz & Iva V. Tasseva & Gerlinde Verbist, 2022. "Welfare Resilience at the Onset of COVID‐19 Pandemic in a Selection of European Countries: Impact on Public Finance and Household Incomes," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(2), pages 293-322, June.
    3. Florian Dorn & Sahamoddin Khailaie & Marc Stoeckli & Sebastian C. Binder & Tanmay Mitra & Berit Lange & Stefan Lautenbacher & Andreas Peichl & Patrizio Vanella & Timo Wollmershäuser & Clemens Fuest & , 2023. "The common interests of health protection and the economy: evidence from scenario calculations of COVID-19 containment policies," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(1), pages 67-74, February.
    4. Fuest, Clemens & Immel, Lea & Neumeier, Florian & Peichl, Andreas, 2023. "Does expert information affect citizens’ attitudes toward Corona policies? Evidence from Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier, 2020. "After the Great Economic Collapse: Germany’s Stimulus Package to Recover the Economy in Times of Covid-19," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(02), pages 38-46, July.
    6. Paolo Brunori & Marisa Luisa Maitino & Letizia Ravagli & Nicola Sciclone, 2021. "Distant and different? Lockdown and inequalities in Italy," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2021(2), pages 39-54.
    7. Dorine Boumans & Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer, 2020. "Covid-19: The World Economy in Intensive Care: Findings from a Worldwide Expert Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(05), pages 52-56, May.
    8. Perugini, Cristiano & Vladisavljević, Marko, 2021. "Social stability challenged by Covid-19: Pandemics, inequality and policy responses," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 146-160.
    9. Karen Pittel & Helena Cordt & Sandra Gschnaller & Mathias Mier & Valeriya Azarova, 2020. "Briefly on the Climate: The Coronavirus Crisis and its Effects on European Emissions Trading," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(06), pages 67-71, June.
    10. Otilia MANTA & Viorica NEACSU B., 2020. "Measures Applied At European Level In The Context Of The Current Crisis (Ii)," Internal Auditing and Risk Management, Athenaeum University of Bucharest, vol. 58(2), pages 33-53, June.
    11. Figari, Francesco & V. Fiorio, Carlo, 2020. "Welfare resilience in the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy," EUROMOD Working Papers EM6/20, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    12. Dorine Boumans & Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer, 2020. "Covid-19: The World Economy Needs a Lifeline – But Which One?," EconPol Policy Brief 27, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    13. M. S. Chowdhury & Kazi Sajedur Rahman & Vidhya Selvanathan & Narissara Nuthammachot & Montri Suklueng & Ali Mostafaeipour & Asiful Habib & Md. Akhtaruzzaman & Nowshad Amin & Kuaanan Techato, 2021. "Current trends and prospects of tidal energy technology," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 8179-8194, June.
    14. Anton Pichler & Marco Pangallo & R. Maria del Rio-Chanona & Franc{c}ois Lafond & J. Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy?," Papers 2005.10585, arXiv.org.
    15. Siedschlag, Iulia & Yan, Weijie, 2020. "Containing the COVID-19 Pandemic: What Determined the Speed of Government Interventions?," Papers WP680, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Sarita Silveira & Martin Hecht & Hannah Matthaeus & Mazda Adli & Manuel C. Voelkle & Tania Singer, 2022. "Coping with the COVID-19 Pandemic: Perceived Changes in Psychological Vulnerability, Resilience and Social Cohesion before, during and after Lockdown," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-30, March.

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